The election for the President of India shall be held on July 17, and the result will be declared on July 20, 2017. For the Congress, this election was supposed to be about demonstrating opposition unity against the Modi government. More importantly, it was about demonstrating that the opposition would unite under the Congress’ banner, of tolerance, pluralism, etc., etc.
It has failed.
For Modi, who was in a very strong position given that he had all the votes he needed to win, the election was about ensuring that the opposition did not gang up against the government. And certainly, he wanted to avoid another gabfest on secularism and India's tolerant ethos. One can say that he has succeeded.
But in his success lies the germ of something that can easily go out of control. It seems he has created a monster. Pure unintended consequences.
I will describe what I mean, but it isn’t a simple matter. There are wheels within wheels. While the presidential election is pretty much a foregone conclusion, a lot has changed in the electoral landscape of India in the run up to the election.
Let us go over the sequence of events.
For most of May and June the government and the opposition circled each other on the presidential election. The BJP made it clear that it would unilaterally decide the election because ‘it had the mandate of the people.’ The Congress made it clear that it would ensure a contest. To keep up appearances, the BJP invited the Congress to provide suggestions on candidates. The Congress retorted that it wanted the government to declare its candidate before there could be any discussions. On 16 Jun 2017 the BJP and the Congress met. Since the BJP had no candidate to offer, the meeting was inconclusive. This was, of course, all tamasha. It was always clear that the opposition would not make the first move. The government had to announce a candidate.
In hindsight, there were two significant events in the run up to the election. I noted them both, but I did not appreciate their import. First, Nitish systematically began skipping opposition ‘unity’ meetings. He even held a one-on-one meeting with the Prime Minister. And second, the Congress repeatedly approached Sharad Pawar to be presidential candidate.
The heart of the mathematics for the Indian General Election of 2019 (IGE2019) lies in 168 seats. There are 80 in UP, which will be decided by where Mayawati moves. There are 40 in Bihar, where the election will turn on whether Nitish and Lalu stick together. And 48 in Maharashtra, where Sharad Pawar and the Shiv Sena, combined, just might swing matters.
Maharashtra came into play first. The Congress’ effort was to put up Sharad Pawar as presidential candidate in order to sharpen divisions between the BJP and the Shiv Sena, and perhaps even to ensure that Pawar was out of the race for Prime Minister in 2019. Most intriguingly, at least as far back as March 2017 Rahul and Sonia saw Pawar as a counterweight to Nitish in the fight to lead the opposition against Modi. I could not fully comprehend this dynamic then, and I am sure I do not understand it fully even now, but I can show you what I saw. Here is a news report from March 20, 2017:
“...A top Congress source said Rahul himself sought a meeting with Pawar on March 10, a day before the Assembly election results were out. He said that Pawar alone has the stature and credibility to bring around all political parties to form a broad national alliance. The move is also seen as an attempt by the Congress to silence voices that have been backing Nitish Kumar to lead such an alliance. Insiders said the meeting between Rahul and Pawar lasted for nearly two hours. Congress general secretary CP Joshi, a few days ago, made it quite clear that his party alone can't fight Modi and alliances will have to be forged in every state. But he then sought Rahul to be seen as a coalition deal-maker. Further, unlike Nitish, Pawar has good rapport with the corporate world, that rallied behind Modi during the last elections and also has the capacity to raise funds. There is a possibility of an alliance coming up for Karnataka that goes to polls in April 2018...”
So do keep in mind that certainly before March 2017 Rahul and Sonia were already worried about a coup from Nitish and were working to forestall him.
Hold that thought.
Sonia and Rahul reached out to Pawar to offer the position of President. Pawar did not oblige them. He announced on May 27, 2017 that he was out of the contest. And the BJP heaved a sigh of relief. It wasn’t going to be attacked in Maharashtra. It was time for the counterattack from the BJP to begin.
The BJP’s counterattack came through Nitish. We cannot know the content of discussions between Modi and Nitish. We do know that pretty much on the day Pawar announced that he wasn’t interested in the President’s post, which is May 26/27, Nitish missed a meeting with Sonia in order to be with Modi. I would bet that around that time Modi and Nitish reached an understanding on the NDA presidential candidate, which means that I believe Modi told Nitish who he planned to place as the NDA candidate, and Nitish assured Modi that he would support that candidate. I will detail my reasons for believing so.
But for the moment, let us go back to the sequence of events again. From March 2017 onwards the Congress offered the post of President to Pawar. On May 26/27 Pawar announced that he was out of the race. On May 26/27 Nitish missed a meeting with Sonia to be with Modi. The BJP told the Congress that it would have to accept whatever candidate the BJP announced. The Congress announced that there was certainly going to be a contest, and it asked the government to stop pussyfooting around the matter and declare a candidate. Many names were bounced around in the first two weeks of June. They were all way off the mark. The Congress and the BJP met on June 16, but it was a mere PR affair because there was no candidate to discuss.
On 19 Jun 2017, after a meeting of the BJP Parliamentary board, the BJP announced Ram Nath Kovind, a Dalit leader from UP, and present governor of Bihar, as its presidential candidate.
Immediately UP and Bihar came into play.
First UP. Mayawati announced that given the BJP / NDA candidate was a Dalit from UP, she would not support a non Dalit UPA candidate. In saying so, she played into the BJP's hands because she instantly destroyed the Congress’ propaganda plan around the presidential election. The Congress and the Communists under Yechury had planned to make the election about two ‘ideologies’ of India, one ‘open, inclusive, and tolerant’, the other ‘intolerant and closed’, and had been thinking of nice clean candidates like MS Swaminathan (a scientist) and Gopal Krishna Gandhi (a grandson). Mayawati’s statement made it clear that if the Congress was serious about any alliance in UP to oppose the BJP, it would need a Dalit candidate. The whole election became Dalits vs. others.
And then Bihar came into play. Nitish drove the knife deeper into the UPA, and then he twisted it. He praised Ram Nath Kovind as a great candidate, a good person, ‘not really RSS’, and in a matter of hours the JDU began leaking that it would support the NDA candidate. It is this simple fact, that Nitish decided to support the NDA candidate in a matter of hours after the announcement, which first gave me the impression that this was a khichdi Nitish and Modi had cooked together. The impression was strengthened when, on Jun 21, before the UPA had announced its candidate, the JDU formally declared its support to Kovind and decided to skip the opposition’s meeting to decide a presidential candidate. This action went against the first rule of politics, which is to make your views clear only after all others are committed to a course of action. Nitish is a master of the game. There is no way he would not follow this rule unless he was in a great hurry to make his position irreversible. Finally, this impression, that Nitish and Modi planned this together, is all but confirmed by the way Nitish justified his decision to support Kovind. But more on that a little later.
On Jun 22, the Congress led UPA announced Meira Kumar, daughter of Babu Jagjivan Ram, senior Congress leader, seasoned politician, Dalit, married to a Kurmi (Nitish’s caste group), and Bihari, as its candidate. With that the UPA's surrender in the propaganda war was complete. It was all about Dalit vs. Dalit; the Congress could not force the election on issues of intolerance; it could not position it as a battle of inclusive vs. intolerant ideologies. It was all about who empowers Dalits; exactly how the NDA wanted it; a battle to woo Dalits while ignoring any noise around secularism.
The candidature of Meira Kumar was tailor made to garner Mayawati’s support and to make Nitish very uncomfortable.
It worked on Mayawati. She immediately declared her support to Meira Kumar. She was playing a straight bat.
Nitish did not reverse his support to Kovind. He was playing a reverse sweep!
Rumours began to grow doubting the future of the Bihar alliance. Lalu pointedly asked Nitish how he could oppose a ‘Dalit, Bihar ki beti,’ in the election. Modi made Nitish’s position even more uncomfortable by making sure that the very day Nitish was supporting the NDA, on Jun 21, the Income Tax department questioned Misa Bharati, Lalu’s daughter, in a benami property case, for some seven straight hours. The timing could not have been accidental. Modi wanted to make Nitish and Lalu’s dilemma as acute as possible. It is even possible that Nitish wanted it that way, but I doubt he would have known Modi’s plan for Misa. Modi, of course, wanted to split the opposition, and he was using Nitish for his end.
The opposition parties were incensed at Nitish’s refusal to support their candidate. In order to make his position clear Nitish made some very sharp comments justifying his support to Kovind. And in doing so he gave us a view to what he wanted to achieve from knifing the opposition.
Here he is:
“...”There is no doubt about the result. We have a lot of respect for ‘Bihar ki Beti’. But the question is has the ‘Bihar ki Beti’ been chosen as the opposition candidate, but she will lose,” he told reporters here... “You (Congress) had opportunities twice. But, why didn’t you chose the ‘Bihar ki Beti’ when she had a chance to win? I believe they should have a re-think,” Kumar said, adding, “But you (Congress) have begun (preparations for the 2019 general election) with a losing strategy.” The Bihar chief minister said, “There should be a strategy for the 2019 general election. This is not for victory in 2019.” Kumar said that Kovind’s name was announced first by the ruling party and the JD(U) did not have any objection to his name. “That is why we supported him,” Kumar said. The JD(U) had on Thursday rejected its ally and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad’s request to reconsider its support to the NDA’s presidential pick, saying its stand was based on merit and it would stick to it. “Everyone is independent to put forth views. As far as the ‘mahagathbandhan’ is concerned, it is not an issue of the alliance. It is a decision to be taken by each party separately,” Kumar said...”
Nitish’s is a nuanced and deeply thought through play.
First, if the Bihar mahagathbandhan escalates this fight, Nitish could ask the BJP for support and chuck Lalu and the Congress out of power. That is something Lalu’s kids will simply not allow daddy to do. Moreover, given how cosy Nitish has gotten with Modi, Lalu just cannot risk it. Both Nitish and Modi are masters of intrigue. They would have a plan handy to cook Lalu spicy and tender if he takes this too far. By saying that his decision on the presidential election has nothing to do with the Bihar government, Nitish gave Lalu a face-saver to let the mahagathbandhan remain. And Lalu took that face-saver.
Second, Nitish signalled to the Congress to get real, and by that he means the Congress needs to support him in projecting himself as the PM candidate, and allow him to lead the opposition alliance in battle against the BJP in 2019.
Modi underestimated Nitish. Modi believed he was using Nitish to split the opposition. Instead, Nitish used Modi to make himself the leading contender for heading the opposition alliance in 2019. He used Modi's conniving to actually push for a united opposition.
The price Nitish has paid is that now he is deeply mistrusted by the opposition. But, to be perfectly honest, I think that is alright. Politics is not a field one gets into to be well thought of by others. One joins politics to pursue power. There is no way, no way at all, that any person bidding for Prime Ministership against Narendra Modi will be trusted by the entire opposition. The moment any opposition politician says he wants to be PM, whether that is Maya, or Mulayam, or Nitish, or Lalu, or Pawar, or Rahul, or Chidambaram, or Manmohan, or Scindia, whosoever it may be, (s)he will face a trust deficit. Nitish understands that very well. It is better to get the trust deficit in Jun 2017 rather than face it in April 2019, or worse, to fall to a palace coup in May 2019 the way Chandrashekhar did in 1989.
It is, for example, clear, that the Congress leadership despises Nitish. Here is how the Congress saw the whole drama:
“...In April, he met Sonia ji and mooted the idea to field a joint Opposition candidate for the presidential elections. During the interaction, the shrewd Nitish also tried to gauge the mood whether he could be the possible face of the non-BJP parties against Modi in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. “When he was informally told that there could be no compromise on Rahul Gandhi’s name, the JD(U) president developed cold feet on forging a loose conglomeration of all those who were opposed to the BJP in general and Modi in particular,” the source added. On 26 May, when Sonia convened a luncheon meet of Opposition leaders, Nitish was the first to desert her. Instead, he deputed a lightweight Sharad Yadav (who despite being a former JD(U) chief has no standing of his own) to represent the party. Much to everyone’s chagrin, a day later, Nitish accepted a lunch invitation hosted by PM Narendra Modi in honour of the Mauritius PM. A former minister who worked under Nitish in his first stint as CM said: Nitish’s luncheon meeting with his bête noire Modi, although termed a courtesy call, gave ample indication as to how the Bihar CM had been looking for greener pastures. It’s now only a matter of time before he now crosses over the fence and joins NDA...”
I agree with this only partially.
I do not believe, at all, that Nitish is making off for greener pastures to the NDA.
I think he is simply forcing the issue.
He has asked the opposition parties to get real. When he says they are building a losing strategy for 2019, he means two things: 1) Rahul isn’t an option; and 2) they cannot go fighting Modi as a rag tag bunch without a PM candidate and a stated agenda. The question that hangs, and everyone knows it is hanging out there, is, who better than Nitish?
I agree.
Get real.
And I agree.
Who better than Nitish!
Rahul?
Get real!
By making it clear that he isn’t going to join an alliance supporting Rahul for PM, Nitish has precipitated a crisis for the Congress, one which it cannot sidestep, one which has the power to pulverize the Congress’ own leadership. The Congress can either let Nitish go to the NDA. Or it will have to ask Rahul to follow Nitish.
What should the Congress do?
The only way to get the right answer to that question is to talk to all the others – Mulayam, Maya, Akhilesh, Pawar, Stalin... But I suspect the Congress will not do that because it knows their answers as well. They will either push their own candidature, or they will suggest Nitish over Rahul. They have to get real. Rahul isn’t beating Modi. Nitish can.
The whole operation could backfire big time on Nitish, of course. It could be that Nitish loses CMship in Bihar and ends up nowhere. He is, of course, taking great risk, but then one does not get a shot at becoming Prime Minister of India without taking great risk. If anything, Nitish’s record for the last few years shows that he has an appetite for risk even bigger than Modi.
He already looks to be winning. As far as the presidential election is concerned, the opposition has haemorrhaged support to the NDA. Over the last few days, after Nitish made his views clear, Naveen decided to support Kovind, so did KCR in Telangana, Chandra Babu Naidu in Andhra, the various AIADMKs hopped on with the NDA, even Mamata hedged. The Presidential election is all but over. Meira Kumar is not merely going to lose, it will be a humiliating loss. The Congress will lose more ground to Modi. And to Nitish.
In summary, the first man itching to face off Modi in 2019 is in play, and he is in play because Modi acted smart. I doubt Modi wanted to precipitate a realignment in the opposition so early. I think Nitish will succeed because there simply isn’t anyone else with the courage, the acumen and the standing. What we witnessed in the guise of the presidential election was the beginning of Nitish’s bid for PMship. It seems like what I expected in Jun 2018 is already in motion. Next stop – the big opposition rally on August 27 at Patna. One cannot but feel that this is not what Modi would have wanted when he plotted with Nitish.
The Congress has only two ways out of this. It can swallow Nitish’s leadership. Or it can, somehow, create a powerful platform for Rahul to dominate. I doubt it will be able to do anything except accept Nitish. Its leadership is currently too weak to be able to manage even its own regional satraps. Amarinder is king in Punjab. Scindia and Pilot will probably take the crowns in MP and Rajasthan. Others will follow. Hell, even Shankarsinh Vaghela is revolting in Gujarat, and uncannily, his message to the Congress is the same as Nitish’s. One can paraphrase it thus: It seems you prefer to be defeated in elections rather than allow winning provincial leadership to emerge. Get real.
Here he is telling the Gandhis to take a long, long, long walk:
“...“You are heading for committing suicide. There is a big ditch ahead, if you want to fall, then go on. I won’t stay on this path,” he said. Vaghela urged the party to be “alert” especially after the Congress’ dismal performance in Uttar Pradesh in March this year. In a show of strength, Vaghela addressed a meeting of as many as 3,000 supporters in Gandhinagar on Saturday. “One cannot remain idle and expect to win, one has to do homework. If you do not want to do anything, then I believe you have taken a ‘supari’ [contract] to lose to the BJP,” he said, adding that he will meet Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi in July. Vaghela said he had already informed Congress President Sonia Gandhi that his commitment towards the party was “over”. He also clarified that he was not looking to be the Congress’ chief ministerial candidate. “AK Antony committee’s report was accepted, which said that candidates should be declared one year prior to elections, he said. “Do it at least six months in advance. But the time is running out here.”...”
Honestly, one has to sympathize with Vaghela. You create this entire movement, a Patidar agitation, a Dalit agitation, a groundswell of anger, you dethrone a CM; and then your leadership at Delhi freezes because it is afraid of giving up control?
Get real!
*
Bhuwan Singh writes on Indian politics and publishes on Facebook and Kindle. Kindly "Like” the Facebook page to be alerted on future Facebook posts. https://www.facebook.com/bhuwansinghwriter/. You can buy his books at http://www.amazon.in/Bhuwan-Singh/e/B00E9O5X9Q.
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Sources:
BJP and Congress discuss the election: https://thewire.in/148010/congress-bjp-presidential-candidate/ and https://thewire.in/148416/presidential-elections-bjp-opposition/ and http://www.firstpost.com/politics/presidential-election-2017-venkaiah-naidu-rajnath-singh-meet-sonia-gandhi-congress-demands-names-from-bjp-3672531.html
Nitish, Congress and Pawar: http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-nitish-kumar-or-sharad-pawar-opposition-split-over-anti-modi-face-2359702 and http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/pawar-sings-nitish-tune-dodges-question-on-rahul-116042900375_1.html
Congress and Pawar in the President election: https://scroll.in/article/832110/rahul-gandhi-reaches-out-to-pawar-to-form-anti-bjp-national-coalition-for-2019-polls and http://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/congress-chief-sonia-gandhi-wanted-ncp-chief-sharad-pawar-to-fight-presidential-election/story-dZDx7xQ2ak1k3DIXGgJDpN.html and http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/sharad-pawar-says-he-is-not-in-the-race-for-president-post/story-9CNOSjDNlbK5vwdaqmIk0H.html
Nitish misses meet with Sonia to meet Modi: http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/nitish-kumar-gives-sonia-s-lunch-a-miss-set-to-meet-pm-modi-on-saturday/story-oFEBSMlj2dhjjT9wI1C9HK.html
BJP announces candidate on Jun 19: http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/bihar-governor-and-dalit-leader-ram-nath-kovind-is-nda-s-presidential-candidate-bjp-chief-amit-shah/story-1x2AphQCM3IuNC9hchnO3K.html
Nitish’s support to Kovind, Jun 19: http://indianexpress.com/article/beyond-the-news/ram-nath-kovind-a-model-governor-who-jdu-is-likely-to-support-4711723/
Jun 21 formal support to Kovind from JDU: http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/jdu-to-support-ndas-presidential-pick-ram-nat-kovind/article19113883.ece?homepage=true and http://indianexpress.com/article/india/presidential-polls-jdu-to-support-ram-nath-kovinds-nomination-4715513/
Jun 21 – Misa Bharati questioned by the Income Tax department: http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lalu-yadavs-daughter-misa-bharti-appears-before-tax-officials-in-benami-land-case-1715185
Jun 22 – Meira Kumar announced UPA candidate: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/7Nf8hrARk85Eyt4C8oJDiJ/Presidential-election-Meira-Kumar-of-Congress-said-to-be-op.html
Maya supports Meira Kumar: http://www.oneindia.com/india/next-president-of-india-gopal-krishna-gandhi-first-choice-of-opposition-2474148.html
Support from Kovind from AIADMK, TRS, TDP, Naveen: http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/trs-tdp-pledge-support-for-bjp-s-presidential-candidate-ram-nath-kovind-cong-maintains-uneasy-quiet/story-nGibR6doHVkJ1pgCtMsAgP.html and http://www.firstpost.com/politics/presidential-election-2017-naveen-patnaik-announces-support-for-nda-candidate-ram-nath-kovind-3714651.html
Mamata hedges on Kovind, Chandra Babu Naidu to woo her: http://www.firstpost.com/india/presidential-election-2017-chandrababu-naidu-seeks-mamta-banerjees-support-for-ram-nath-kovind-3715587.html
Nitish on why he supported Kovind and on 2019: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/F0arRUyGL6exoH55eswUOO/Presidential-election-Nitish-Kumar-faces-fresh-calls-to-rec.html and http://www.timesnow.tv/india/article/no-question-of-rethinking-decision-to-support-ram-nath-kovind-says-jdu-chief-nitish-kumar-on/64082
Nitish on how a Bihar style alliance can beat BJP: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/nitish-kumar-bihar-mahagathbandhan-bjp-2019-lok-sabha-elections/1/919349.html
Nitish and the trust deficit: https://www.thequint.com/opinion/2017/06/23/nitish-kumar-congress-kovind-bjp
Vaghela: https://scroll.in/latest/841712/gujarat-election-congress-lacks-foresight-says-senior-party-leader-shankersinh-vaghela
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