Delhi chokes on smog because of the dysfunctional politics of Punjab. Who is responsible? Who can resolve it? How?
Every year, around October and November, air quality at Delhi plunges to hazardous levels. A huge city surrounded by large industrial parks with silent billowing chimneys and run through by clogged honking highways, Delhi suffers many sources of pollution: industrial emissions, vehicle emissions, fires at garbage dumps, open fires at homes or on roads, rampant construction.
But it is widely believed that the biggest contributor to the annual October - November smog is actually field burning in Punjab. Not vehicles in Delhi. Not Diwali. Not construction. Not field burning in Haryana. The problem is field burning in Punjab.
This year, November 2016, the smog is the worst in living memory and it isn’t a problem restricted to Delhi. It is a sub-continent sized problem. One cannot simply avoid the smog by leaving town for a nearby resort. To breathe fresh air, one needs to travel a thousand miles, South to Mumbai, or East to Kolkata, or North into the mountains bordering Nepal. Going West, one wouldn’t get fresh air this side of Afghanistan. Lahore too looks like Delhi. You can see the smog’s size in the space images listed in the sources below (from outlook magazine).
At the heart of the smoked out region sits the Indian province of Punjab, which, happily, also sits at the heart of the problem. The Great Indian Haze originates here, in hundreds of thousands of farm fires that are set alight every October by millions of farmers. These farmers plant government subsidized seeds and water them using canal water provided free by the government, or using government subsidized electricity to draw free ground water in contravention of government rules. They apply government subsidized fertilizers and government subsidized pesticides and obtain a harvest. The harvesting these days is done by combine harvesters, which too are government subsidized, and are bought on government subsidized loans, and they run on government subsidized diesel. The net result is a rice harvest that is sold off at highly inflated government mandated minimum prices.
Harvesting through a combine harvester leaves behind a foot high crop stubble, which the farmers proceed to burn, again in contravention of government rules. It is a contentious matter. Even though combine harvesters are very recent, the government says farm burning is ancient practice and it can do little to intervene. To be sure field burning is banned in law. However, farmers say they are left to fend for themselves without any government help, so they have no choice but to burn the stubble to keep their home fires burning. It is a tearjerker of epic proportions, though it doesn’t quite add up.
It is easy to see that the combine harvester is a recently invented machine, so this kind of farm burning can’t be more ancient than a few decades. It is also easy to see how sensitive the farmer is to government incentives. The government provides so many subsidies and controls so thoroughly all aspects to agriculture that the average Punjab farmer is practically a government employee. So stories of farmers revolting against government rules that ban farm burning are highly exaggerated, if not entirely fiction. In any case, it does not matter. Whether the practice is ancient or modern, whether farmers are subsidized or left helpless, whether they like it or not, it does not matter. The practice needs to stop. Farmers can’t get to choke India just because they feed it. If this is the cost of rice, then I suspect Delhi would prefer Chinese rice.
Happily, the problem is not as intractable as the government would have us believe. Prodding just one man to do his job would do the trick because at the core of the problem, at its very center, is one single politician who lurks in the background, almost obscured. He is, however, utterly central.
Why is the problem political and who is the politician responsible?
One gets a big clue in the pictures listed in the sources. Do click them. Look at the farm fires burn. The ancient practice, the unstoppable burning, the penury of farmers, stops right at the border of Punjab. On the East and South the moment one crosses into Himachal and Haryana, and in the West the moment one goes over to Pakistan, the fires disappear. In this picture Punjab, and only Punjab, is alight. It is so sharply defined that you can make out its pear shape and its political and international borders.
Now, if you are still not convinced I will request you to see the gif video in the mashable link referred in the sources below. If you are not convinced even after viewing that video, then I request you look at the NASA images I have put in the links. If you know the political map of India, you will see in a second that the problem is Punjab, and only Punjab.
Only Punjab.
This fact is very well known to most relevant institutions in India. The Supreme court knows and has intervened. The National Green Tribunal knows and has intervened. The Central Government knows and has intervened. The Delhi government knows and has intervened. The issue is so well known, in fact, that early in October 2016 “Delhi Environment Minister Imran Hussain told PTI that this time around the AAP government's focus will be on tackling this annual menace before the winter sowing season. "I have already written to the neighbouring state governments in this regard. I will also arrange a meeting with them to ensure that corrective steps are taken and things do not remain limited to mere words and letters," Hussain said.”
I am not sure if Imran did finally arrange those meetings. They wouldn’t have mattered anyway. Imran Hussain was naive. He expected action because he knew not who he was up against.
Even as Imran Hussain wrote from Delhi it was clear to those following up on the ground that nothing would happen. One such body, the Supreme Court appointed Environmental Pollution Control Authority had thrown up its hands in frustration because Punjab Agriculture officials were informing the Authority, in meeting after meeting after meeting throughout October 2016, that they would not, could not stop farmers from burning their fields and choking Delhi because there were elections in Punjab in March 2017, and so the farmers would vote, and so they could not be bothered.
That is right.
About ten million farmers in Punjab (population 17 million, 60% farming) could not be bothered. They were to be left alone to burn North India to hell and jeopardize about 25 million people in Greater Delhi alone. In summary, per Punjab Agriculture, it did not matter if the actions of Punjab’s 10 million farmers choked 200 - 300 million people across North and West India who now inhale their fumes. This was the state of administrative logic in Punjab. It guaranteed disaster.
It would be easy to blame the officials and end the story. It would also be wrong because Punjab Agriculture officers were not acting on their own. They were merely spouting the party line.
In India farmers listen to government officials, not the other way around. Government officials listen to politicians, and Punjab Agriculture officers were mouthing lines given to them by that one politician who matters to our story.
Prakash Singh Badal.
Prakash Badal is currently Chief Minister of Punjab and his son Sukhbir Badal heads the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), their family owned political party. Sukhbir’s wife Harsimrat Kaur Badal is Union Minister for Food Processing. Interestingly, she grew up in Delhi. The cabinet of Punjab is, in the usual Indian way, the extended Badal family - cousins, in laws, etc.
The SAD rules in alliance with the BJP, whose 56 inch chest shrinks to 56 mm in Punjab. While the Gujarat lion roars all over India, in Punjab his party doesn’t even squeak. A few months back, in Aug 2016, the head of the RSS in Punjab was shot dead. Did we hear anything?
‘Hello......... anybody there?’
That silence is the power of Prakash Badal over the BJP.
The heart of Prakash Badal’s politics in Punjab is identity. Like so many politicians we know in so many states, he places Punjab’s pride above everything else. He is a hardball man, he has seen the fire pits of hell, having spent 17 of his 89 years in prison and having endured hard police interrogation, and he has kissed the fragrant heavens, being endowed with the Padma Vibhushan, India’s second highest civilian honour, and he has been compared to Nelson Mandela by none other than Narendra Modi. He was Punjab’s youngest Chief Minister, and is also its oldest. He has been active in politics since 1947. The worlds swirls around Prakash Badal, and throughout it all he has remained stoic, unimpressed, always playing the peasant in the ballroom. Badal is a man who has seen so much that he can have no fear in the autumn of his life. What can one do to him? Jail him? Have the police torture him? Exile him? Take away his awards? Raid him for Income Tax?
Been there, done that.
To understand just how tough and unreasonable Badal can be, one has to study the case of the Satluj Yamuna Link Canal (SYLC).
The background is simple enough. When Punjab and Haryana separated from one big parent Punjab State, Haryana was promised a fair share of Satluj Water. This water was to be delivered via a canal linking the Satluj to the Yamuna. Didn’t happen. A few days back Haryana celebrated 50 years of existence, and it still ain’t happening. Nobody seriously expects it to ever happen. But to keep up appearances Haryana sued Punjab and the case has progressed over many decades, like a Banyan tree, with many roots and many branches, mainly because every time the Courts found in favour of Haryana, Punjab simply refused to comply. Under the Congress’ rule. Under the SAD and the BJP. Punjab state simply would not give away any water. When the matter went in favor of Haryana in 2004, for example, the Congress’ then CM Amarinder Singh passed a law that repudiated all previous agreements on Satluj water. The law worked to deny Haryana water, but it didn’t work to its intended purpose, which was to get Amarinder victory in the next election. He lost to Badal in 2007 and again in 2012. Badal has been in power for a decade.
Badal is made of sterner stuff than the Congress. To outdo Amarinder, who in 2004 had repudiated mere paper agreements, in March 2016 Badal passed a law returning all land acquired for the Satluj Yamuna Link Canal back to its original owners. A canal, after all, has to exist on the ground, so if land acquired for it is returned the canal just cannot be conceived. It is under such simple, devastating logic that Badal operates. His quip on the new law he passed: “No bamboo, no flute.”
In this action Badal was supported by all political parties - the Congress, the BJP and the AAP. They had no choice. They believed that to not support the destruction of the SYLC would be political suicide in Punjab. No matter how unreasonable the demand. No matter how destructive the long term consequences. As the Supreme Court pondered the matter of the newly passed law in Punjab, JCB excavators turned up in the thousands to plough through the canal’s construction. Newly reinstated owners gleefully swooped to claim their land with government help. Punjab’s cabinet ranged near the site of the canal, egging on the destruction. When the Supreme Court stayed the matter a few days after the passage of the law, Prakash Badal accelerated the destruction of the canal in the window between the issuance of the court order and its receipt in Chandigarh for official implementation.
The defiance continues. Recently Badal made clear that as far as the SYLC is concerned the Supreme Court is irrelevant, deluded, powerless. He will not let SYLC happen. The Supreme Court can go stuff it, hop about, sob, scream, throw any tantrum, any threat, any punishment. Under all circumstances Prakash Badal’s cool, even voiced reply is: “We are ready to make any sacrifice to safeguard the legitimate share of river waters.” In other words, it will come to blows and bullets.
One cannot be sure, because he has not made his intentions plain yet, but his actions suggest strongly that on the issue of air pollution caused by field burning Badal has taken the same standard Punjab line. North India can choke, but Punjab’s farmers cannot be bothered. Has he done it deliberately, carefully weighing all consequences, or is it just a question of culture now that Punjab’s farmers cannot be bothered for anything. We do not know. Did Badal specifically tell Punjab Agriculture officers to lay off, or did they sense the political winds themselves, without even the need to be instructed, we do not know. We do know, however, the actions and the result on the ground, and they show that Punjab’s stand on the matter is that its farmers will not be troubled, irrespective of the consequences.
To understand Badal, one must understand his political strategy against the AAP, the Congress and the BJP, the only other relevant players in Punjab. It is a simple and direct play, but it is quite effective. Since Badal is the only one who has no other provinces to think of except Punjab, he can outflank all the others by being extreme. The more unreasonable he is in defence of Punjab, the more difficult it will become for the Congress, the AAP and the BJP to counter him within the province without angering those outside it. Considerations pertaining to provinces outside Punjab, such as Delhi and Haryana, would restrain the other parties. SAD, on the other hand, is unrestrained. The others, therefore, cannot hope to win the war of words as long as Badal remains unreasonable.
So here it is. Prakash Badal cannot be threatened. He is fearless. Prakash Badal also cannot be legally restrained, because he does not respect even the Supreme Court. He cannot be lured. He already rules Punjab and is rich beyond belief. He cannot be corralled by the central government because he is a BJP ally. Thousands will die, but that is incidental. Badal knows it in a distant, Godly kind of way. They will die anyway. It is their fate and not his fault. His strategy is to be more extreme than anyone else and he will follow it come what may. Did Badal plan the Delhi smog? I do not know. Did he know it would get this bad? Perhaps not. Did he appreciate the consequences? Perhaps no. Does he now know he gains by the smog? Most certainly yes. He may or may not have planned it, but it is clear that he benefits from it immensely, and he knows it.
Such is the man Delhi must negotiate with for air to breathe.
Unfortunate it is then that the man who has the biggest responsibility to lure and coerce Prakash Badal is in his choke hold. Arvind Kejriwal, Chief Minister of Delhi, desires Punjab for AAP. And that is the reason why Prakash Badal perhaps does not merely want to ignore pollution, he probably wants to encourage it.
On the evening of November 2, 2016, the day of the worst smog in living memory at Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal (AK) had a choice of issues to take up for evening TV. There had been a very unfortunate suicide by a retired soldier at Delhi on the issue of army pensions. There was also the unprecedented, lethal blanket of smoke that covered the city of Delhi and smothered about 25 million people. Perhaps the Delhi CM pondered the matter at length and it was a close call on the matter he would take up that evening. I wouldn’t know. What I know is that he chose to agitate on army pensions.
Arvind Kejriwal’s choice was quite calculated. And his calculations were forced by Prakash Badal. One could see the calculation. Offhand I can list seven points that AK would have considered.
1. He had no responsibility for, nor could he do anything about army pensions, so he took them up with great enthusiasm.
2. OROP (One Rank One Pension) was, and remains, a wide open space with vast opportunities to hog the airwaves mouthing brilliant purple prose without bothering about the nitty gritty. It was a good distraction.
3. AK took up OROP because the issue highlighted a failing of the central government, which he detests.
4. He chose OROP over air pollution because Delhi did not have elections, while Punjab, which has a sizeable number of retired army men, did have elections lined up.
5. Arvind Kejriwal was responsible for Delhi and therefore, paradoxically, he ignored the city because highlighting its plight would have shown him in poor light.
6. AK believed people would soon forget about the 2016 smog, straight for a year until the arrival of the 2017 smog.
7. AK also believed that air pollution could not be resolved without incurring great political cost. His government pushed a few ad hoc interventions just to hedge its bets, but fundamentally, he did not believe that there was a solution to air pollution that was politically doable. Ban cars? Odd-even? Shut factories? Strictly monitor construction activity? Force Punjab to act tough on field burning? Arvind Kejriwal did not believe he could do any of these things. He was absolutely right. Other steps would not make a difference, and Punjab, AK understood, he could not address.
AK was trapped. If he took up air pollution, he would be hammered in Punjab. If he did not, he would be hammered in Delhi. Either way, Prakash Badal would win by simply ensuring the pollution problem be made as acute as possible.
Prakash Badal is the reason why Arvind Kejriwal is agitating on OROP. He is also the reason why Rahul Gandhi is agitating on OROP. And they will keep agitating on OROP and other issues even as their home city goes up in smoke. They are studiously ignoring the obvious because speaking up will play into the hands of the man who created this monster in the first place. This is also why the President is silent, and so is the PM. If any one of them speaks Prakash Badal will ensure that person takes severe damage in the Punjab election. They all know it.
This year is a write off. Even next year the man who has to solve this is Narendra Modi. This problem and its creator are well beyond the acumen and power of all other players. I do not doubt for a moment that Modi knows he will have to act. He knows it is coming for him. For one, the NGT has already got many states involved, so the central government has to get involved. And then, the fact of the matter is that the heartland of India is at 200% of China pollution at 20% of China GDP. If we are to have any economic future then pollution has to be tackled. We could of course grow to 100% China GDP with 1000% China pollution. It would be very adventurous to try.
Personally, I do not think it will take much. Simply banning combine harvesters of the type that leave a crop stubble will have the desired effect. A few changes to procurement prices of rice and rice straw would work. Two or three high profile arrests of farmers who burn their fields might suffice. Perhaps Modi should meet Harsimrat Kaur Badal. She is the Union Minister of Food Processing, daughter in law of Prakash Badal, wife of the heir apparent at SAD. She is a Delhi girl. She would see that things are unsustainable. She perhaps would be able to urge Prakash Badal that steps must be taken. Perhaps Modi could talk to the Delhi Sikh Gurudwara Management Committee. This committee is under the rule of Prakash Badal’s SAD. They would be able to intercede with him and convey directly the distress at Delhi. There is good reason to hope field burning would stop soon.
Bhuwan Singh writes on Indian politics and publishes on Facebook and Kindle. You can get his books at https://www.amazon.com/Bhuwan-Singh/e/B00E9O5X9Q or simply click the Shop Now button near the top of his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/bhuwansinghwriter/. All books are available on Kindle only. You can read them by downloading the free Kindle app or by buying a Kindle device. Please “Like” the Facebook page to be alerted on future Facebook posts.
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Sources:
The Run up to Delhi’s November 2016 Smog: http://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/delhi/2016/oct/16/delhi-holds-breath-as-farm-fires-rage-in-punjab-haryana-1528484.html?pm=340
Delhi Smog: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Delhi-chokes-on-worst-Nov-smog-in-many-years/articleshow/55216180.cms
North India Smog: http://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/diwali-and-stubble-burning-have-muddled-your-oxygen/297356
Lahore under smog: http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/air-pollution-covers-pakistani-city-of-lahore-1.3147441
NASA Real Time Fire Mapping Images: https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/firemap/
And NASA’s images narrowed to India: https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/firemap/?x=77.00624999999997&y=28.050000000000004&z=6&g=g&v=6&r=0&i=nw&l=ad,ct&s=2016-10-05&e=2016-11-05. This is a 375 m resolution I Band view. For a different view see https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/firemap/?x=76.80000000000001&y=28.200000000000003&z=6&g=g&v=7&r=0&i=nw&l=ad,ct&s=2016-10-05&e=2016-11-05
Punjab Agriculture helpless against farmers: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/punjab-farm-fires-particulate-matter-punjab-elections/1/801207.html
Punjab Crop Burning: http://mashable.com/2016/11/03/nasa-delhi-air-pollution-crops-burning-farmers-india/#R7uNab7kUkqy
SAD on SYL: http://www.hindustantimes.com/punjab/will-not-accept-even-supreme-court-s-verdict-to-share-river-water-with-haryana-punajb-cm-badal/story-DepcGNzT1O3y64INu6pTAK.html
The Congress’ agitation on SYLC: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/congress-threatens-mass-resignations-if-sc-decides-against-punjab-in-syl-case/1/722816.html
Prakash Badal on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkash_Singh_Badal
Modi says Badal is Mandela: http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/badal-indias-nelson-mandela-says-pm-modi-twitter-explodes-laughing-1230906
Punjab and SYL: http://www.indiatvnews.com/politics/national-punjab-passes-resolution-against-syl-construction-319836
NGT acts on air pollution. Sees inter state issue: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/do-the-people-have-the-right-to-breathe-fresh-air-centre-reprimands-kejriwal-government/articleshow/55253491.cms
AK says centre must intervene and act on pollution: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/delhi-resembles-a-gas-chamber-centre-needs-to-intervene-cm-arvind-kejriwal-3738863/
Every year, around October and November, air quality at Delhi plunges to hazardous levels. A huge city surrounded by large industrial parks with silent billowing chimneys and run through by clogged honking highways, Delhi suffers many sources of pollution: industrial emissions, vehicle emissions, fires at garbage dumps, open fires at homes or on roads, rampant construction.
But it is widely believed that the biggest contributor to the annual October - November smog is actually field burning in Punjab. Not vehicles in Delhi. Not Diwali. Not construction. Not field burning in Haryana. The problem is field burning in Punjab.
This year, November 2016, the smog is the worst in living memory and it isn’t a problem restricted to Delhi. It is a sub-continent sized problem. One cannot simply avoid the smog by leaving town for a nearby resort. To breathe fresh air, one needs to travel a thousand miles, South to Mumbai, or East to Kolkata, or North into the mountains bordering Nepal. Going West, one wouldn’t get fresh air this side of Afghanistan. Lahore too looks like Delhi. You can see the smog’s size in the space images listed in the sources below (from outlook magazine).
At the heart of the smoked out region sits the Indian province of Punjab, which, happily, also sits at the heart of the problem. The Great Indian Haze originates here, in hundreds of thousands of farm fires that are set alight every October by millions of farmers. These farmers plant government subsidized seeds and water them using canal water provided free by the government, or using government subsidized electricity to draw free ground water in contravention of government rules. They apply government subsidized fertilizers and government subsidized pesticides and obtain a harvest. The harvesting these days is done by combine harvesters, which too are government subsidized, and are bought on government subsidized loans, and they run on government subsidized diesel. The net result is a rice harvest that is sold off at highly inflated government mandated minimum prices.
Harvesting through a combine harvester leaves behind a foot high crop stubble, which the farmers proceed to burn, again in contravention of government rules. It is a contentious matter. Even though combine harvesters are very recent, the government says farm burning is ancient practice and it can do little to intervene. To be sure field burning is banned in law. However, farmers say they are left to fend for themselves without any government help, so they have no choice but to burn the stubble to keep their home fires burning. It is a tearjerker of epic proportions, though it doesn’t quite add up.
It is easy to see that the combine harvester is a recently invented machine, so this kind of farm burning can’t be more ancient than a few decades. It is also easy to see how sensitive the farmer is to government incentives. The government provides so many subsidies and controls so thoroughly all aspects to agriculture that the average Punjab farmer is practically a government employee. So stories of farmers revolting against government rules that ban farm burning are highly exaggerated, if not entirely fiction. In any case, it does not matter. Whether the practice is ancient or modern, whether farmers are subsidized or left helpless, whether they like it or not, it does not matter. The practice needs to stop. Farmers can’t get to choke India just because they feed it. If this is the cost of rice, then I suspect Delhi would prefer Chinese rice.
Happily, the problem is not as intractable as the government would have us believe. Prodding just one man to do his job would do the trick because at the core of the problem, at its very center, is one single politician who lurks in the background, almost obscured. He is, however, utterly central.
Why is the problem political and who is the politician responsible?
One gets a big clue in the pictures listed in the sources. Do click them. Look at the farm fires burn. The ancient practice, the unstoppable burning, the penury of farmers, stops right at the border of Punjab. On the East and South the moment one crosses into Himachal and Haryana, and in the West the moment one goes over to Pakistan, the fires disappear. In this picture Punjab, and only Punjab, is alight. It is so sharply defined that you can make out its pear shape and its political and international borders.
Now, if you are still not convinced I will request you to see the gif video in the mashable link referred in the sources below. If you are not convinced even after viewing that video, then I request you look at the NASA images I have put in the links. If you know the political map of India, you will see in a second that the problem is Punjab, and only Punjab.
Only Punjab.
This fact is very well known to most relevant institutions in India. The Supreme court knows and has intervened. The National Green Tribunal knows and has intervened. The Central Government knows and has intervened. The Delhi government knows and has intervened. The issue is so well known, in fact, that early in October 2016 “Delhi Environment Minister Imran Hussain told PTI that this time around the AAP government's focus will be on tackling this annual menace before the winter sowing season. "I have already written to the neighbouring state governments in this regard. I will also arrange a meeting with them to ensure that corrective steps are taken and things do not remain limited to mere words and letters," Hussain said.”
I am not sure if Imran did finally arrange those meetings. They wouldn’t have mattered anyway. Imran Hussain was naive. He expected action because he knew not who he was up against.
Even as Imran Hussain wrote from Delhi it was clear to those following up on the ground that nothing would happen. One such body, the Supreme Court appointed Environmental Pollution Control Authority had thrown up its hands in frustration because Punjab Agriculture officials were informing the Authority, in meeting after meeting after meeting throughout October 2016, that they would not, could not stop farmers from burning their fields and choking Delhi because there were elections in Punjab in March 2017, and so the farmers would vote, and so they could not be bothered.
That is right.
About ten million farmers in Punjab (population 17 million, 60% farming) could not be bothered. They were to be left alone to burn North India to hell and jeopardize about 25 million people in Greater Delhi alone. In summary, per Punjab Agriculture, it did not matter if the actions of Punjab’s 10 million farmers choked 200 - 300 million people across North and West India who now inhale their fumes. This was the state of administrative logic in Punjab. It guaranteed disaster.
It would be easy to blame the officials and end the story. It would also be wrong because Punjab Agriculture officers were not acting on their own. They were merely spouting the party line.
In India farmers listen to government officials, not the other way around. Government officials listen to politicians, and Punjab Agriculture officers were mouthing lines given to them by that one politician who matters to our story.
Prakash Singh Badal.
Prakash Badal is currently Chief Minister of Punjab and his son Sukhbir Badal heads the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), their family owned political party. Sukhbir’s wife Harsimrat Kaur Badal is Union Minister for Food Processing. Interestingly, she grew up in Delhi. The cabinet of Punjab is, in the usual Indian way, the extended Badal family - cousins, in laws, etc.
The SAD rules in alliance with the BJP, whose 56 inch chest shrinks to 56 mm in Punjab. While the Gujarat lion roars all over India, in Punjab his party doesn’t even squeak. A few months back, in Aug 2016, the head of the RSS in Punjab was shot dead. Did we hear anything?
‘Hello......... anybody there?’
That silence is the power of Prakash Badal over the BJP.
The heart of Prakash Badal’s politics in Punjab is identity. Like so many politicians we know in so many states, he places Punjab’s pride above everything else. He is a hardball man, he has seen the fire pits of hell, having spent 17 of his 89 years in prison and having endured hard police interrogation, and he has kissed the fragrant heavens, being endowed with the Padma Vibhushan, India’s second highest civilian honour, and he has been compared to Nelson Mandela by none other than Narendra Modi. He was Punjab’s youngest Chief Minister, and is also its oldest. He has been active in politics since 1947. The worlds swirls around Prakash Badal, and throughout it all he has remained stoic, unimpressed, always playing the peasant in the ballroom. Badal is a man who has seen so much that he can have no fear in the autumn of his life. What can one do to him? Jail him? Have the police torture him? Exile him? Take away his awards? Raid him for Income Tax?
Been there, done that.
To understand just how tough and unreasonable Badal can be, one has to study the case of the Satluj Yamuna Link Canal (SYLC).
The background is simple enough. When Punjab and Haryana separated from one big parent Punjab State, Haryana was promised a fair share of Satluj Water. This water was to be delivered via a canal linking the Satluj to the Yamuna. Didn’t happen. A few days back Haryana celebrated 50 years of existence, and it still ain’t happening. Nobody seriously expects it to ever happen. But to keep up appearances Haryana sued Punjab and the case has progressed over many decades, like a Banyan tree, with many roots and many branches, mainly because every time the Courts found in favour of Haryana, Punjab simply refused to comply. Under the Congress’ rule. Under the SAD and the BJP. Punjab state simply would not give away any water. When the matter went in favor of Haryana in 2004, for example, the Congress’ then CM Amarinder Singh passed a law that repudiated all previous agreements on Satluj water. The law worked to deny Haryana water, but it didn’t work to its intended purpose, which was to get Amarinder victory in the next election. He lost to Badal in 2007 and again in 2012. Badal has been in power for a decade.
Badal is made of sterner stuff than the Congress. To outdo Amarinder, who in 2004 had repudiated mere paper agreements, in March 2016 Badal passed a law returning all land acquired for the Satluj Yamuna Link Canal back to its original owners. A canal, after all, has to exist on the ground, so if land acquired for it is returned the canal just cannot be conceived. It is under such simple, devastating logic that Badal operates. His quip on the new law he passed: “No bamboo, no flute.”
In this action Badal was supported by all political parties - the Congress, the BJP and the AAP. They had no choice. They believed that to not support the destruction of the SYLC would be political suicide in Punjab. No matter how unreasonable the demand. No matter how destructive the long term consequences. As the Supreme Court pondered the matter of the newly passed law in Punjab, JCB excavators turned up in the thousands to plough through the canal’s construction. Newly reinstated owners gleefully swooped to claim their land with government help. Punjab’s cabinet ranged near the site of the canal, egging on the destruction. When the Supreme Court stayed the matter a few days after the passage of the law, Prakash Badal accelerated the destruction of the canal in the window between the issuance of the court order and its receipt in Chandigarh for official implementation.
The defiance continues. Recently Badal made clear that as far as the SYLC is concerned the Supreme Court is irrelevant, deluded, powerless. He will not let SYLC happen. The Supreme Court can go stuff it, hop about, sob, scream, throw any tantrum, any threat, any punishment. Under all circumstances Prakash Badal’s cool, even voiced reply is: “We are ready to make any sacrifice to safeguard the legitimate share of river waters.” In other words, it will come to blows and bullets.
One cannot be sure, because he has not made his intentions plain yet, but his actions suggest strongly that on the issue of air pollution caused by field burning Badal has taken the same standard Punjab line. North India can choke, but Punjab’s farmers cannot be bothered. Has he done it deliberately, carefully weighing all consequences, or is it just a question of culture now that Punjab’s farmers cannot be bothered for anything. We do not know. Did Badal specifically tell Punjab Agriculture officers to lay off, or did they sense the political winds themselves, without even the need to be instructed, we do not know. We do know, however, the actions and the result on the ground, and they show that Punjab’s stand on the matter is that its farmers will not be troubled, irrespective of the consequences.
To understand Badal, one must understand his political strategy against the AAP, the Congress and the BJP, the only other relevant players in Punjab. It is a simple and direct play, but it is quite effective. Since Badal is the only one who has no other provinces to think of except Punjab, he can outflank all the others by being extreme. The more unreasonable he is in defence of Punjab, the more difficult it will become for the Congress, the AAP and the BJP to counter him within the province without angering those outside it. Considerations pertaining to provinces outside Punjab, such as Delhi and Haryana, would restrain the other parties. SAD, on the other hand, is unrestrained. The others, therefore, cannot hope to win the war of words as long as Badal remains unreasonable.
So here it is. Prakash Badal cannot be threatened. He is fearless. Prakash Badal also cannot be legally restrained, because he does not respect even the Supreme Court. He cannot be lured. He already rules Punjab and is rich beyond belief. He cannot be corralled by the central government because he is a BJP ally. Thousands will die, but that is incidental. Badal knows it in a distant, Godly kind of way. They will die anyway. It is their fate and not his fault. His strategy is to be more extreme than anyone else and he will follow it come what may. Did Badal plan the Delhi smog? I do not know. Did he know it would get this bad? Perhaps not. Did he appreciate the consequences? Perhaps no. Does he now know he gains by the smog? Most certainly yes. He may or may not have planned it, but it is clear that he benefits from it immensely, and he knows it.
Such is the man Delhi must negotiate with for air to breathe.
Unfortunate it is then that the man who has the biggest responsibility to lure and coerce Prakash Badal is in his choke hold. Arvind Kejriwal, Chief Minister of Delhi, desires Punjab for AAP. And that is the reason why Prakash Badal perhaps does not merely want to ignore pollution, he probably wants to encourage it.
On the evening of November 2, 2016, the day of the worst smog in living memory at Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal (AK) had a choice of issues to take up for evening TV. There had been a very unfortunate suicide by a retired soldier at Delhi on the issue of army pensions. There was also the unprecedented, lethal blanket of smoke that covered the city of Delhi and smothered about 25 million people. Perhaps the Delhi CM pondered the matter at length and it was a close call on the matter he would take up that evening. I wouldn’t know. What I know is that he chose to agitate on army pensions.
Arvind Kejriwal’s choice was quite calculated. And his calculations were forced by Prakash Badal. One could see the calculation. Offhand I can list seven points that AK would have considered.
1. He had no responsibility for, nor could he do anything about army pensions, so he took them up with great enthusiasm.
2. OROP (One Rank One Pension) was, and remains, a wide open space with vast opportunities to hog the airwaves mouthing brilliant purple prose without bothering about the nitty gritty. It was a good distraction.
3. AK took up OROP because the issue highlighted a failing of the central government, which he detests.
4. He chose OROP over air pollution because Delhi did not have elections, while Punjab, which has a sizeable number of retired army men, did have elections lined up.
5. Arvind Kejriwal was responsible for Delhi and therefore, paradoxically, he ignored the city because highlighting its plight would have shown him in poor light.
6. AK believed people would soon forget about the 2016 smog, straight for a year until the arrival of the 2017 smog.
7. AK also believed that air pollution could not be resolved without incurring great political cost. His government pushed a few ad hoc interventions just to hedge its bets, but fundamentally, he did not believe that there was a solution to air pollution that was politically doable. Ban cars? Odd-even? Shut factories? Strictly monitor construction activity? Force Punjab to act tough on field burning? Arvind Kejriwal did not believe he could do any of these things. He was absolutely right. Other steps would not make a difference, and Punjab, AK understood, he could not address.
AK was trapped. If he took up air pollution, he would be hammered in Punjab. If he did not, he would be hammered in Delhi. Either way, Prakash Badal would win by simply ensuring the pollution problem be made as acute as possible.
Prakash Badal is the reason why Arvind Kejriwal is agitating on OROP. He is also the reason why Rahul Gandhi is agitating on OROP. And they will keep agitating on OROP and other issues even as their home city goes up in smoke. They are studiously ignoring the obvious because speaking up will play into the hands of the man who created this monster in the first place. This is also why the President is silent, and so is the PM. If any one of them speaks Prakash Badal will ensure that person takes severe damage in the Punjab election. They all know it.
This year is a write off. Even next year the man who has to solve this is Narendra Modi. This problem and its creator are well beyond the acumen and power of all other players. I do not doubt for a moment that Modi knows he will have to act. He knows it is coming for him. For one, the NGT has already got many states involved, so the central government has to get involved. And then, the fact of the matter is that the heartland of India is at 200% of China pollution at 20% of China GDP. If we are to have any economic future then pollution has to be tackled. We could of course grow to 100% China GDP with 1000% China pollution. It would be very adventurous to try.
Personally, I do not think it will take much. Simply banning combine harvesters of the type that leave a crop stubble will have the desired effect. A few changes to procurement prices of rice and rice straw would work. Two or three high profile arrests of farmers who burn their fields might suffice. Perhaps Modi should meet Harsimrat Kaur Badal. She is the Union Minister of Food Processing, daughter in law of Prakash Badal, wife of the heir apparent at SAD. She is a Delhi girl. She would see that things are unsustainable. She perhaps would be able to urge Prakash Badal that steps must be taken. Perhaps Modi could talk to the Delhi Sikh Gurudwara Management Committee. This committee is under the rule of Prakash Badal’s SAD. They would be able to intercede with him and convey directly the distress at Delhi. There is good reason to hope field burning would stop soon.
Bhuwan Singh writes on Indian politics and publishes on Facebook and Kindle. You can get his books at https://www.amazon.com/Bhuwan-Singh/e/B00E9O5X9Q or simply click the Shop Now button near the top of his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/bhuwansinghwriter/. All books are available on Kindle only. You can read them by downloading the free Kindle app or by buying a Kindle device. Please “Like” the Facebook page to be alerted on future Facebook posts.
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Sources:
The Run up to Delhi’s November 2016 Smog: http://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/delhi/2016/oct/16/delhi-holds-breath-as-farm-fires-rage-in-punjab-haryana-1528484.html?pm=340
Delhi Smog: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Delhi-chokes-on-worst-Nov-smog-in-many-years/articleshow/55216180.cms
North India Smog: http://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/diwali-and-stubble-burning-have-muddled-your-oxygen/297356
Lahore under smog: http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/air-pollution-covers-pakistani-city-of-lahore-1.3147441
NASA Real Time Fire Mapping Images: https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/firemap/
And NASA’s images narrowed to India: https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/firemap/?x=77.00624999999997&y=28.050000000000004&z=6&g=g&v=6&r=0&i=nw&l=ad,ct&s=2016-10-05&e=2016-11-05. This is a 375 m resolution I Band view. For a different view see https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/firemap/?x=76.80000000000001&y=28.200000000000003&z=6&g=g&v=7&r=0&i=nw&l=ad,ct&s=2016-10-05&e=2016-11-05
Punjab Agriculture helpless against farmers: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/punjab-farm-fires-particulate-matter-punjab-elections/1/801207.html
Punjab Crop Burning: http://mashable.com/2016/11/03/nasa-delhi-air-pollution-crops-burning-farmers-india/#R7uNab7kUkqy
SAD on SYL: http://www.hindustantimes.com/punjab/will-not-accept-even-supreme-court-s-verdict-to-share-river-water-with-haryana-punajb-cm-badal/story-DepcGNzT1O3y64INu6pTAK.html
The Congress’ agitation on SYLC: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/congress-threatens-mass-resignations-if-sc-decides-against-punjab-in-syl-case/1/722816.html
Prakash Badal on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkash_Singh_Badal
Modi says Badal is Mandela: http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/badal-indias-nelson-mandela-says-pm-modi-twitter-explodes-laughing-1230906
Punjab and SYL: http://www.indiatvnews.com/politics/national-punjab-passes-resolution-against-syl-construction-319836
NGT acts on air pollution. Sees inter state issue: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/do-the-people-have-the-right-to-breathe-fresh-air-centre-reprimands-kejriwal-government/articleshow/55253491.cms
AK says centre must intervene and act on pollution: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/delhi-resembles-a-gas-chamber-centre-needs-to-intervene-cm-arvind-kejriwal-3738863/
