Chinese Conundrums (Published July 11, 2017)

The Chinese have been very belligerent with India in the past few days. After a confrontation started between Indian and Chinese troops at Dokalam, near Sikkim and Bhutan, a Chinese Newspaper, one that is a government mouthpiece, asked Indian troops to leave the Dokalam area ‘with dignity or be kicked out’. They also warned us that we will face greater losses than in 1962.

Harsh words.

The Chinese are an entirely different culture, and so, very obviously, it is difficult for us to understand them. But there are a few books that give a good idea of how Chinese geostrategic thinking works. I have listed these books in the sources. Since the Chinese are such a different culture, one gets to know a very different system of thought, which is a very useful thing, for it allows one to examine where one stands.

So the first Chinese conundrum. The Chinese hate going to war. Yet they are never at peace.

Chinese thinking on geostrategic kind of matters is, according to the great Henry Kissinger, similar to the game ‘Go’. They are perpetually seeking positional advantage, seeking to encircle, seeking to overwhelm. The central belief is that the ultimate achievement of a strategist is to gain victory without fighting, simply by surrounding and overwhelming an opponent. The Chinese fight only when no other option is workable. To have to resort to blows is something of a defeat in itself.

Encircle. Overwhelm. Advance. Repeat.

This is what they did in the South China Sea, which they have already won, without firing a shot. It was an impressive piece of diplomatic frogboiling. The Philippine President, for example, unthinkingly rocked his friendship with America, called Obama names, said he was with the Chinese because the Americans were a sinking ship, all in order to cosy up to the Chinese and to get them to back off. For his troubles he was threatened with war by China. All it took to pacify the Philippines was a sentence from Xi, threatening war if the Philippines drilled for oil in the South China sea.

This is also what the Chinese do at the Indian border, which they dominate, and where they have been certain since 1962, that India will not undertake an offensive.

This is what they do using North Korea against America, which is being incrementally throttled into accepting a madman with nukes and ICBMs aimed at their cities.

This is what they do in the North Asian seas facing South Korea and Japan, where they face cultures that think just like them, and where, therefore, they have had limited success.

This is their way with Taiwan, which they will surely gobble up, but which they are in no hurry to gobble up.

Every single Chinese border is ‘hot’ because the Chinese always seek to dominate it. There is always the next atoll, the next ridge, the next peak that would make their position stronger, and they continually seek it. But their strategic culture is not merely borderland incrementalism. It is the relentless pursuit of strategic encirclement. It is to get such a hold on your opponent in peace that he cannot even contemplate war. Here is Kissinger describing Chinese thinking:

“…Discussing China on CNN Sunday, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that “One has to understand the Chinese intellectual game, which is what we call go (and) they call weiqi.” Explaining that “it’s a game of strategic encirclement,” Kissinger said that “our intellectual game is chess. Chess is about victory or defeat. Somebody wins.” Kissinger contrasted chess in which “all the pieces are in front of you at all times, so you can calculate your risk” with go, where the pieces “are not all on the board, and your opponent is always capable of introducing new pieces.” Historically, Kissinger said, the Chinese use strategic analysis based on “the go way.”…”

The contrast with India could not be starker.

Our strategic thinking is more akin to ludo (ok, chopad). We get to the board completely unprepared and pray to the lord to roll us a six. Strategic acumen is loading the dice (and therefore Shakuni is a strategist)! While China maintains relentless pressure on the Indian border, we fail to dominate even Pakistan because we alternate between Prime Ministerial smooch fests, and brutal mountain wars, pointless artillery duels, suicidal military raids; and we have not an inch of land or a grain of awe to show after seventy years at it. At the India – Pakistan border soldiers routinely die and are dismembered over nothing. There have been four wars and zero changes. On the India-China border, on the other hand, where not a bullet has been fired in the last forty years, the net result, in the words of an Indian strategist, is:

“… Bite by kilometre-sized bite, China is eating away at India’s Himalayan borderlands. For decades, Asia’s two giants have fought a bulletless war for territory along their high-altitude border. Recently, though, China has become more assertive, underscoring the need for a new Indian containment strategy. On average, China launches one stealth incursion into India every 24 hours. Mr Kiren Rijiju, India’s Minister of State for Home Affairs, says the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is actively intruding into vacant border space with the objective of occupying it. And according to a former top official with India’s Intelligence Bureau, India has lost nearly 2,000 sq km to PLA encroachments over the past decade…”

The right way, then, to look at the Dokalam standoff is that we are already at war with China. They’re playing Go. We are playing ludo. And so it is that if China manages to penetrate deep towards the narrow stretch of land connecting India to the North East, we would not, in the near future, have the option of even defending Arunachal, which would mean that we would not even have the option to go to war.

So that was the first Chinese conundrum (the Chinese hate going to war, yet they are never at peace).

The second Chinese conundrum is deliciously diabolical too. The Chinese use force as a last resort. Yet they are very quick to use force.

The Chinese use force as a last resort, and are extremely careful about going to war. When they went to war against Vietnam in 1979, for example, Kissinger describes how, months before the war, Deng traveled all over Asia painting Vietnam as a danger to peace. He even approached the US, months in advance again, to enquire as to what it would do if the Vietnamese attacked China (ha ha, I mean it just takes the cake). Similar care and reluctance to go to war marked the 1962 China – India war. They approached Nehru with what they believed to be ‘reasonable’ offers in 1960. They were rebuffed. At around this time, andthis was 1960, the Chinese concluded conflict to be approaching and inevitable. When it came they claimed, in my view not without reason, that they had been ‘forced’ into war by Nehru’s inability to grasp the weakness of his military position and his intransigence to ‘reasonable’ Chinese offers. One important aim of the war was to wake Nehru up to reality. Another was to demoralize India, but more about that later, what I want to highlight here is their reluctance to go to war, and that they prepare meticulously.

However, and this is what makes the conundrum so tasty, the Chinese feel that because the application of force must be judicious, minimal, they prefer to use force early in a contest, because using it late will require more of it, which would be injudicious and wasteful. And so, there is always a very real danger that the Chinese will resort to war when one least expects it, simply because the Chinese usually conclude that if they have to fight, then it is better to go to war at the very earliest. This is the reason why, while the Chinese believe they were very patient with India in 1962, we Indians believe they started a war when there was no need for one. Pre-emptive counter attacks (I know, it is a contradiction in terms) are a well accepted concept in Chinese thinking.

The Chinese, however, remained judicious in their use of force even when they won a surprisingly easy victory over India in 1962. Having won their objectives, they withdrew. They believed that any more force would have driven us to America, and they did not want to deliver India into America’s lap. That would have defeated the very purpose of the war, which was to demoralize India and to show Nehru the actual military balance, not to leave it writhing for revenge.

Again, the contrast with India could not be starker. In our history since 1947, I think 1971 was the one instance we came close to this sort of approach. We are 'no first use' in everything from grenades to nukes. Unsurprisingly, we usually use force too late, and therefore are forced to use huge amounts of it. Perhaps the surgical strike undertaken recently by PM Modi will develop into something approaching the way China works. We certainly have been getting much better on such matters lately.

But, for the present, one can comfortably say that our usual way is essentially like Kargil, 1999, where we woke up to a Pakistani invasion after they had occupied the heights, and then we fought them against all odds in areas where they occupied the high ground, in effect sacrificing Indian soldiers to honor the fundamental Pakistani insurance behind a Kargil kind of incursion, which was that India would not mount a full scale war even in the face of the gravest of provocations. These days we wonder how we can convince Pakistan that we are serious and will fight. We wonder how we will deal with Pakistan if (and when) it blows up sending a radioactive shower on our cities. And we wrack our national soul with painful inquisitions on our commitment to secularism in Kashmir, and we also wonder, paradoxically, how we can make the Pakistanis feel nice and warm about us. China, on the other hand, aims “…”to take Taiwan whole and intact … without ever resorting to force," using economic, military and diplomatic levers….”

Really, we should learn.

And that is that on the second Chinese conundrum: the Chinese use force as a last resort, yet they are very quick to use force.

The third Chinese conundrum is again complex. The Chinese are not driven by emotion, nor by the sub-continental sense of fighting for ‘honor’ or 'pride'. Yet, they place paramount importance on psychological objectives in statecraft because they seek to dominate.
 Unlike India, or particularly Pakistan, the other subcontinental power and our cultural cousin, which will go to war to avenge perceived insults, to even the body count, to assuage public opinion, the Chinese go to war with far more concrete aims. Like they go to war to humiliate an enemy so thoroughly that it is unable to gather the will to fight again. They seek to stamp psychological dominance. Time and again, against India in 1962, against Vietnam in 1979, the Chinese have won territory but withdrawn. Part of it has to do with the great cost associated with holding enemy territory, especially in the face of guerilla war. But a large part of it is also because in the Chinese way war is in the mind, not on the ground.

When he began the war in 1962, Mao said: “Since Nehru sticks his head out and insists on us fighting him, for us not to fight with him would not be friendly enough; courtesy emphasizes reciprocity.” When he was done a few days later, he gave up all occupied territory and boasted that he has dealt with the Indian threat for a generation. It was true.
But let us ask why? Why did he give up the land in order to emphasize the blow?
Well, here is his answer and a great lesson on the Chinese way: “People may ask if there is contradiction to abandon a territory gained by heroic battle. Does it mean that the heroic fighters shed their blood in vain and to no purpose? This is to put the wrong question. Does one eat to no purpose simply because he relieves himself later? Does one sleep in vain because one wakes up and goes about? I do not think the questions should be asked thus; rather one should keep on eating and sleeping or fighting. These are illusions born out of subjectivism and formalism and do not exist in real life."

Who is to say that they haven't learnt more from the Buddha than us?

We should be flattered that the Chinese are concerned about us enough to try to encircle us with ports and roads. Clearly, they know we are coming for them. They know India can be a very dangerous opponent. The opium wars, after all, were fought by Indian soldiers. And Indian soldiers were involved in the sacking of the Summer Palace, which is the signature event of what the Chinese call their century of humiliation, the wound that will never heal.
It is funny, but it is true, that we have lost our historical memory. But China remembers. There was a time, under the British, when Indian soldiers helped conquer the world. China is prudent enough to consider that some day perhaps we will regain memory of that time and wonder why we shouldn't do it again, this time for ourselves.

Here is Gen JFR Jacob writing about the way China sees india:

“…To put Sino-Indian relations into perspective, it is necessary to look at from a historical as well as a strategic context. Let me begin from the Second Opium War in1860 in which Indian troops took part. Four brigades of British and Indian infantry (Sikh Regiment, Madras Regiment, Bombay Native Infantry and the Ludhiana Rifles) and one cavalry brigade, which included Probyn's Horse, took part in these operations, in which the Summer Palace in Peking was sacked and looted. I recall a Chinese general telling me in 1957: "We, Chinese, will never forget that Indian troops took part in the sacking of the Summer Palace."…”

Perhaps China sees we are becoming stronger. Perhaps it sees that we are developing a capacity for geostrategic thought that will, in a few years, match China. We sure are learning fast. Military exercises with Japan. Pre emptive strikes and lots of other dirty tricks against Pakistan. India is showing a breadth of vision and a willingness to run risks that have grabbed China's attention.

The Chinese will do everything in their power to stop us.

*
Bhuwan Singh writes on Indian politics and publishes on Facebook and Kindle. Kindly "Like” the Facebook page to be alerted on future Facebook posts. https://www.facebook.com/bhuwansinghwriter/. You can buy his books at http://www.amazon.in/Bhuwan-Singh/e/B00E9O5X9Q.
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Sources:

Dokalam stand off: http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/leave-sikkim-dokalam-area-with-dignity-or-be-kicked-out-chinese-media-117070500295_1.html

Kissinger on China and Go: http://www.usgo.org/news/2011/01/kissinger-on-go-and-chinese-strategic-thinking/ and http://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/nw110404.html

Go: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/munk-debates/weiqi-the-game-that-holds-chinas-key-to-world-domination/article598664/

North Korea; https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/

Philippines: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/19/world/asia/philippines-south-china-sea-duterte-war.html?mcubz=2

Indian border: http://www.todayonline.com/commentary/india-must-bare-teeth-face-chinas-high-altitude-land-grab

China India conflict 1962: https://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2011/09/23/weekend-panorama-kissinger%E2%80%99s-china-india%E2%80%99s-neighbor/

China, India, 1960: http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/crossing-the-point-of-no-return/article4028362.ece

CIA view on the Indo China conflict: https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/polo-08.pdf
Mao on 1962: http://www.rediff.com/news/2002/nov/15chin.htm

Gen Jacob: http://www.sify.com/news/sino-indian-ties-what-the-dragon-wont-forget-imagegallery-national-jgsm5Jdfbejsi.html

Kissinger: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/11/kissinger-order-and-chaos/506876/

The Books:

https://www.amazon.in/China-History-John-Keay-ebook/dp/B003GUBIH0

https://www.amazon.in/1962-Wasnt-Shiv-Kunal-Verma-ebook/dp/B01A4BKRVG

https://www.amazon.in/China-Henry-Kissinger-ebook/dp/B004XIZLAY

Wheels within Wheels (Published June 26, 2017)

The election for the President of India shall be held on July 17, and the result will be declared on July 20, 2017. For the Congress, this election was supposed to be about demonstrating opposition unity against the Modi government. More importantly, it was about demonstrating that the opposition would unite under the Congress’ banner, of tolerance, pluralism, etc., etc.

It has failed.

For Modi, who was in a very strong position given that he had all the votes he needed to win, the election was about ensuring that the opposition did not gang up against the government. And certainly, he wanted to avoid another gabfest on secularism and India's tolerant ethos. One can say that he has succeeded.

But in his success lies the germ of something that can easily go out of control. It seems he has created a monster. Pure unintended consequences.

I will describe what I mean, but it isn’t a simple matter. There are wheels within wheels. While the presidential election is pretty much a foregone conclusion, a lot has changed in the electoral landscape of India in the run up to the election.

Let us go over the sequence of events.

For most of May and June the government and the opposition circled each other on the presidential election. The BJP made it clear that it would unilaterally decide the election because ‘it had the mandate of the people.’ The Congress made it clear that it would ensure a contest. To keep up appearances, the BJP invited the Congress to provide suggestions on candidates. The Congress retorted that it wanted the government to declare its candidate before there could be any discussions. On 16 Jun 2017 the BJP and the Congress met. Since the BJP had no candidate to offer, the meeting was inconclusive. This was, of course, all tamasha. It was always clear that the opposition would not make the first move. The government had to announce a candidate.

In hindsight, there were two significant events in the run up to the election. I noted them both, but I did not appreciate their import. First, Nitish systematically began skipping opposition ‘unity’ meetings. He even held a one-on-one meeting with the Prime Minister. And second, the Congress repeatedly approached Sharad Pawar to be presidential candidate.

The heart of the mathematics for the Indian General Election of 2019 (IGE2019) lies in 168 seats. There are 80 in UP, which will be decided by where Mayawati moves. There are 40 in Bihar, where the election will turn on whether Nitish and Lalu stick together. And 48 in Maharashtra, where Sharad Pawar and the Shiv Sena, combined, just might swing matters.

Maharashtra came into play first. The Congress’ effort was to put up Sharad Pawar as presidential candidate in order to sharpen divisions between the BJP and the Shiv Sena, and perhaps even to ensure that Pawar was out of the race for Prime Minister in 2019. Most intriguingly, at least as far back as March 2017 Rahul and Sonia saw Pawar as a counterweight to Nitish in the fight to lead the opposition against Modi. I could not fully comprehend this dynamic then, and I am sure I do not understand it fully even now, but I can show you what I saw. Here is a news report from March 20, 2017:

“...A top Congress source said Rahul himself sought a meeting with Pawar on March 10, a day before the Assembly election results were out. He said that Pawar alone has the stature and credibility to bring around all political parties to form a broad national alliance. The move is also seen as an attempt by the Congress to silence voices that have been backing Nitish Kumar to lead such an alliance. Insiders said the meeting between Rahul and Pawar lasted for nearly two hours. Congress general secretary CP Joshi, a few days ago, made it quite clear that his party alone can't fight Modi and alliances will have to be forged in every state. But he then sought Rahul to be seen as a coalition deal-maker. Further, unlike Nitish, Pawar has good rapport with the corporate world, that rallied behind Modi during the last elections and also has the capacity to raise funds. There is a possibility of an alliance coming up for Karnataka that goes to polls in April 2018...”
So do keep in mind that certainly before March 2017 Rahul and Sonia were already worried about a coup from Nitish and were working to forestall him.

Hold that thought.

Sonia and Rahul reached out to Pawar to offer the position of President. Pawar did not oblige them. He announced on May 27, 2017 that he was out of the contest. And the BJP heaved a sigh of relief. It wasn’t going to be attacked in Maharashtra. It was time for the counterattack from the BJP to begin.
The BJP’s counterattack came through Nitish. We cannot know the content of discussions between Modi and Nitish. We do know that pretty much on the day Pawar announced that he wasn’t interested in the President’s post, which is May 26/27, Nitish missed a meeting with Sonia in order to be with Modi. I would bet that around that time Modi and Nitish reached an understanding on the NDA presidential candidate, which means that I believe Modi told Nitish who he planned to place as the NDA candidate, and Nitish assured Modi that he would support that candidate. I will detail my reasons for believing so.

But for the moment, let us go back to the sequence of events again. From March 2017 onwards the Congress offered the post of President to Pawar. On May 26/27 Pawar announced that he was out of the race. On May 26/27 Nitish missed a meeting with Sonia to be with Modi. The BJP told the Congress that it would have to accept whatever candidate the BJP announced. The Congress announced that there was certainly going to be a contest, and it asked the government to stop pussyfooting around the matter and declare a candidate. Many names were bounced around in the first two weeks of June. They were all way off the mark. The Congress and the BJP met on June 16, but it was a mere PR affair because there was no candidate to discuss.

On 19 Jun 2017, after a meeting of the BJP Parliamentary board, the BJP announced Ram Nath Kovind, a Dalit leader from UP, and present governor of Bihar, as its presidential candidate.
Immediately UP and Bihar came into play.

First UP. Mayawati announced that given the BJP / NDA candidate was a Dalit from UP, she would not support a non Dalit UPA candidate. In saying so, she played into the BJP's hands because she instantly destroyed the Congress’ propaganda plan around the presidential election. The Congress and the Communists under Yechury had planned to make the election about two ‘ideologies’ of India, one ‘open, inclusive, and tolerant’, the other ‘intolerant and closed’, and had been thinking of nice clean candidates like MS Swaminathan (a scientist) and Gopal Krishna Gandhi (a grandson). Mayawati’s statement made it clear that if the Congress was serious about any alliance in UP to oppose the BJP, it would need a Dalit candidate. The whole election became Dalits vs. others.

And then Bihar came into play. Nitish drove the knife deeper into the UPA, and then he twisted it. He praised Ram Nath Kovind as a great candidate, a good person, ‘not really RSS’, and in a matter of hours the JDU began leaking that it would support the NDA candidate. It is this simple fact, that Nitish decided to support the NDA candidate in a matter of hours after the announcement, which first gave me the impression that this was a khichdi Nitish and Modi had cooked together. The impression was strengthened when, on Jun 21, before the UPA had announced its candidate, the JDU formally declared its support to Kovind and decided to skip the opposition’s meeting to decide a presidential candidate. This action went against the first rule of politics, which is to make your views clear only after all others are committed to a course of action. Nitish is a master of the game. There is no way he would not follow this rule unless he was in a great hurry to make his position irreversible. Finally, this impression, that Nitish and Modi planned this together, is all but confirmed by the way Nitish justified his decision to support Kovind. But more on that a little later.

On Jun 22, the Congress led UPA announced Meira Kumar, daughter of Babu Jagjivan Ram, senior Congress leader, seasoned politician, Dalit, married to a Kurmi (Nitish’s caste group), and Bihari, as its candidate. With that the UPA's surrender in the propaganda war was complete. It was all about Dalit vs. Dalit; the Congress could not force the election on issues of intolerance; it could not position it as a battle of inclusive vs. intolerant ideologies. It was all about who empowers Dalits; exactly how the NDA wanted it; a battle to woo Dalits while ignoring any noise around secularism.

The candidature of Meira Kumar was tailor made to garner Mayawati’s support and to make Nitish very uncomfortable.

It worked on Mayawati. She immediately declared her support to Meira Kumar. She was playing a straight bat.

Nitish did not reverse his support to Kovind. He was playing a reverse sweep!

Rumours began to grow doubting the future of the Bihar alliance. Lalu pointedly asked Nitish how he could oppose a ‘Dalit, Bihar ki beti,’ in the election. Modi made Nitish’s position even more uncomfortable by making sure that the very day Nitish was supporting the NDA, on Jun 21, the Income Tax department questioned Misa Bharati, Lalu’s daughter, in a benami property case, for some seven straight hours. The timing could not have been accidental. Modi wanted to make Nitish and Lalu’s dilemma as acute as possible. It is even possible that Nitish wanted it that way, but I doubt he would have known Modi’s plan for Misa. Modi, of course, wanted to split the opposition, and he was using Nitish for his end.

The opposition parties were incensed at Nitish’s refusal to support their candidate. In order to make his position clear Nitish made some very sharp comments justifying his support to Kovind. And in doing so he gave us a view to what he wanted to achieve from knifing the opposition.
Here he is:

“...”There is no doubt about the result. We have a lot of respect for ‘Bihar ki Beti’. But the question is has the ‘Bihar ki Beti’ been chosen as the opposition candidate, but she will lose,” he told reporters here... “You (Congress) had opportunities twice. But, why didn’t you chose the ‘Bihar ki Beti’ when she had a chance to win? I believe they should have a re-think,” Kumar said, adding, “But you (Congress) have begun (preparations for the 2019 general election) with a losing strategy.” The Bihar chief minister said, “There should be a strategy for the 2019 general election. This is not for victory in 2019.” Kumar said that Kovind’s name was announced first by the ruling party and the JD(U) did not have any objection to his name. “That is why we supported him,” Kumar said. The JD(U) had on Thursday rejected its ally and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad’s request to reconsider its support to the NDA’s presidential pick, saying its stand was based on merit and it would stick to it. “Everyone is independent to put forth views. As far as the ‘mahagathbandhan’ is concerned, it is not an issue of the alliance. It is a decision to be taken by each party separately,” Kumar said...”

Nitish’s is a nuanced and deeply thought through play.

First, if the Bihar mahagathbandhan escalates this fight, Nitish could ask the BJP for support and chuck Lalu and the Congress out of power. That is something Lalu’s kids will simply not allow daddy to do. Moreover, given how cosy Nitish has gotten with Modi, Lalu just cannot risk it. Both Nitish and Modi are masters of intrigue. They would have a plan handy to cook Lalu spicy and tender if he takes this too far. By saying that his decision on the presidential election has nothing to do with the Bihar government, Nitish gave Lalu a face-saver to let the mahagathbandhan remain. And Lalu took that face-saver.

Second, Nitish signalled to the Congress to get real, and by that he means the Congress needs to support him in projecting himself as the PM candidate, and allow him to lead the opposition alliance in battle against the BJP in 2019.

Modi underestimated Nitish. Modi believed he was using Nitish to split the opposition. Instead, Nitish used Modi to make himself the leading contender for heading the opposition alliance in 2019. He used Modi's conniving to actually push for a united opposition.

The price Nitish has paid is that now he is deeply mistrusted by the opposition. But, to be perfectly honest, I think that is alright. Politics is not a field one gets into to be well thought of by others. One joins politics to pursue power. There is no way, no way at all, that any person bidding for Prime Ministership against Narendra Modi will be trusted by the entire opposition. The moment any opposition politician says he wants to be PM, whether that is Maya, or Mulayam, or Nitish, or Lalu, or Pawar, or Rahul, or Chidambaram, or Manmohan, or Scindia, whosoever it may be, (s)he will face a trust deficit. Nitish understands that very well. It is better to get the trust deficit in Jun 2017 rather than face it in April 2019, or worse, to fall to a palace coup in May 2019 the way Chandrashekhar did in 1989.

It is, for example, clear, that the Congress leadership despises Nitish. Here is how the Congress saw the whole drama:

“...In April, he met Sonia ji and mooted the idea to field a joint Opposition candidate for the presidential elections. During the interaction, the shrewd Nitish also tried to gauge the mood whether he could be the possible face of the non-BJP parties against Modi in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. “When he was informally told that there could be no compromise on Rahul Gandhi’s name, the JD(U) president developed cold feet on forging a loose conglomeration of all those who were opposed to the BJP in general and Modi in particular,” the source added. On 26 May, when Sonia convened a luncheon meet of Opposition leaders, Nitish was the first to desert her. Instead, he deputed a lightweight Sharad Yadav (who despite being a former JD(U) chief has no standing of his own) to represent the party. Much to everyone’s chagrin, a day later, Nitish accepted a lunch invitation hosted by PM Narendra Modi in honour of the Mauritius PM. A former minister who worked under Nitish in his first stint as CM said: Nitish’s luncheon meeting with his bête noire Modi, although termed a courtesy call, gave ample indication as to how the Bihar CM had been looking for greener pastures. It’s now only a matter of time before he now crosses over the fence and joins NDA...”

I agree with this only partially.

I do not believe, at all, that Nitish is making off for greener pastures to the NDA.

I think he is simply forcing the issue.

He has asked the opposition parties to get real. When he says they are building a losing strategy for 2019, he means two things: 1) Rahul isn’t an option; and 2) they cannot go fighting Modi as a rag tag bunch without a PM candidate and a stated agenda. The question that hangs, and everyone knows it is hanging out there, is, who better than Nitish?

I agree.

Get real.

And I agree.

Who better than Nitish!

Rahul?

Get real!

By making it clear that he isn’t going to join an alliance supporting Rahul for PM, Nitish has precipitated a crisis for the Congress, one which it cannot sidestep, one which has the power to pulverize the Congress’ own leadership. The Congress can either let Nitish go to the NDA. Or it will have to ask Rahul to follow Nitish.

What should the Congress do?

The only way to get the right answer to that question is to talk to all the others – Mulayam, Maya, Akhilesh, Pawar, Stalin... But I suspect the Congress will not do that because it knows their answers as well. They will either push their own candidature, or they will suggest Nitish over Rahul. They have to get real. Rahul isn’t beating Modi. Nitish can.

The whole operation could backfire big time on Nitish, of course. It could be that Nitish loses CMship in Bihar and ends up nowhere. He is, of course, taking great risk, but then one does not get a shot at becoming Prime Minister of India without taking great risk. If anything, Nitish’s record for the last few years shows that he has an appetite for risk even bigger than Modi.

He already looks to be winning. As far as the presidential election is concerned, the opposition has haemorrhaged support to the NDA. Over the last few days, after Nitish made his views clear, Naveen decided to support Kovind, so did KCR in Telangana, Chandra Babu Naidu in Andhra, the various AIADMKs hopped on with the NDA, even Mamata hedged. The Presidential election is all but over. Meira Kumar is not merely going to lose, it will be a humiliating loss. The Congress will lose more ground to Modi. And to Nitish.

In summary, the first man itching to face off Modi in 2019 is in play, and he is in play because Modi acted smart. I doubt Modi wanted to precipitate a realignment in the opposition so early. I think Nitish will succeed because there simply isn’t anyone else with the courage, the acumen and the standing. What we witnessed in the guise of the presidential election was the beginning of Nitish’s bid for PMship. It seems like what I expected in Jun 2018 is already in motion. Next stop – the big opposition rally on August 27 at Patna. One cannot but feel that this is not what Modi would have wanted when he plotted with Nitish.

The Congress has only two ways out of this. It can swallow Nitish’s leadership. Or it can, somehow, create a powerful platform for Rahul to dominate. I doubt it will be able to do anything except accept Nitish. Its leadership is currently too weak to be able to manage even its own regional satraps. Amarinder is king in Punjab. Scindia and Pilot will probably take the crowns in MP and Rajasthan. Others will follow. Hell, even Shankarsinh Vaghela is revolting in Gujarat, and uncannily, his message to the Congress is the same as Nitish’s. One can paraphrase it thus: It seems you prefer to be defeated in elections rather than allow winning provincial leadership to emerge. Get real.

Here he is telling the Gandhis to take a long, long, long walk:

“...“You are heading for committing suicide. There is a big ditch ahead, if you want to fall, then go on. I won’t stay on this path,” he said. Vaghela urged the party to be “alert” especially after the Congress’ dismal performance in Uttar Pradesh in March this year. In a show of strength, Vaghela addressed a meeting of as many as 3,000 supporters in Gandhinagar on Saturday. “One cannot remain idle and expect to win, one has to do homework. If you do not want to do anything, then I believe you have taken a ‘supari’ [contract] to lose to the BJP,” he said, adding that he will meet Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi in July. Vaghela said he had already informed Congress President Sonia Gandhi that his commitment towards the party was “over”. He also clarified that he was not looking to be the Congress’ chief ministerial candidate. “AK Antony committee’s report was accepted, which said that candidates should be declared one year prior to elections, he said. “Do it at least six months in advance. But the time is running out here.”...”

Honestly, one has to sympathize with Vaghela. You create this entire movement, a Patidar agitation, a Dalit agitation, a groundswell of anger, you dethrone a CM; and then your leadership at Delhi freezes because it is afraid of giving up control?
Get real!

*

Bhuwan Singh writes on Indian politics and publishes on Facebook and Kindle. Kindly "Like” the Facebook page to be alerted on future Facebook posts. https://www.facebook.com/bhuwansinghwriter/. You can buy his books at http://www.amazon.in/Bhuwan-Singh/e/B00E9O5X9Q.
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Sources:

BJP and Congress discuss the election: https://thewire.in/148010/congress-bjp-presidential-candidate/ and https://thewire.in/148416/presidential-elections-bjp-opposition/ and http://www.firstpost.com/politics/presidential-election-2017-venkaiah-naidu-rajnath-singh-meet-sonia-gandhi-congress-demands-names-from-bjp-3672531.html

Nitish, Congress and Pawar: http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-nitish-kumar-or-sharad-pawar-opposition-split-over-anti-modi-face-2359702 and http://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/pawar-sings-nitish-tune-dodges-question-on-rahul-116042900375_1.html

Congress and Pawar in the President election: https://scroll.in/article/832110/rahul-gandhi-reaches-out-to-pawar-to-form-anti-bjp-national-coalition-for-2019-polls  and http://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/congress-chief-sonia-gandhi-wanted-ncp-chief-sharad-pawar-to-fight-presidential-election/story-dZDx7xQ2ak1k3DIXGgJDpN.html and http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/sharad-pawar-says-he-is-not-in-the-race-for-president-post/story-9CNOSjDNlbK5vwdaqmIk0H.html

Nitish misses meet with Sonia to meet Modi: http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/nitish-kumar-gives-sonia-s-lunch-a-miss-set-to-meet-pm-modi-on-saturday/story-oFEBSMlj2dhjjT9wI1C9HK.html

BJP announces candidate on Jun 19: http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/bihar-governor-and-dalit-leader-ram-nath-kovind-is-nda-s-presidential-candidate-bjp-chief-amit-shah/story-1x2AphQCM3IuNC9hchnO3K.html

Nitish’s support to Kovind, Jun 19: http://indianexpress.com/article/beyond-the-news/ram-nath-kovind-a-model-governor-who-jdu-is-likely-to-support-4711723/
Jun 21 formal support to Kovind from JDU: http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/jdu-to-support-ndas-presidential-pick-ram-nat-kovind/article19113883.ece?homepage=true and http://indianexpress.com/article/india/presidential-polls-jdu-to-support-ram-nath-kovinds-nomination-4715513/

Jun 21 – Misa Bharati questioned by the Income Tax department: http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lalu-yadavs-daughter-misa-bharti-appears-before-tax-officials-in-benami-land-case-1715185  

Jun 22 – Meira Kumar announced UPA candidate: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/7Nf8hrARk85Eyt4C8oJDiJ/Presidential-election-Meira-Kumar-of-Congress-said-to-be-op.html

Maya supports Meira Kumar: http://www.oneindia.com/india/next-president-of-india-gopal-krishna-gandhi-first-choice-of-opposition-2474148.html

Support from Kovind from AIADMK, TRS, TDP, Naveen: http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/trs-tdp-pledge-support-for-bjp-s-presidential-candidate-ram-nath-kovind-cong-maintains-uneasy-quiet/story-nGibR6doHVkJ1pgCtMsAgP.html  and http://www.firstpost.com/politics/presidential-election-2017-naveen-patnaik-announces-support-for-nda-candidate-ram-nath-kovind-3714651.html

Mamata hedges on Kovind, Chandra Babu Naidu to woo her: http://www.firstpost.com/india/presidential-election-2017-chandrababu-naidu-seeks-mamta-banerjees-support-for-ram-nath-kovind-3715587.html

Nitish on why he supported Kovind and on 2019: http://www.livemint.com/Politics/F0arRUyGL6exoH55eswUOO/Presidential-election-Nitish-Kumar-faces-fresh-calls-to-rec.html and http://www.timesnow.tv/india/article/no-question-of-rethinking-decision-to-support-ram-nath-kovind-says-jdu-chief-nitish-kumar-on/64082

Nitish on how a Bihar style alliance can beat BJP: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/nitish-kumar-bihar-mahagathbandhan-bjp-2019-lok-sabha-elections/1/919349.html

Nitish and the trust deficit: https://www.thequint.com/opinion/2017/06/23/nitish-kumar-congress-kovind-bjp

Vaghela: https://scroll.in/latest/841712/gujarat-election-congress-lacks-foresight-says-senior-party-leader-shankersinh-vaghela

The Choke Hold (Published November 6, 2016)

Delhi chokes on smog because of the dysfunctional politics of Punjab. Who is responsible? Who can resolve it? How?

Every year, around October and November, air quality at Delhi plunges to hazardous levels. A huge city surrounded by large industrial parks with silent billowing chimneys and run through by clogged honking highways, Delhi suffers many sources of pollution: industrial emissions, vehicle emissions, fires at garbage dumps, open fires at homes or on roads, rampant construction.

But it is widely believed that the biggest contributor to the annual October - November smog is actually field burning in Punjab. Not vehicles in Delhi. Not Diwali. Not construction. Not field burning in Haryana. The problem is field burning in Punjab.

This year, November 2016, the smog is the worst in living memory and it isn’t a problem restricted to Delhi. It is a sub-continent sized problem. One cannot simply avoid the smog by leaving town for a nearby resort. To breathe fresh air, one needs to travel a thousand miles, South to Mumbai, or East to Kolkata, or North into the mountains bordering Nepal. Going West, one wouldn’t get fresh air this side of Afghanistan. Lahore too looks like Delhi. You can see the smog’s size in the space images listed in the sources below (from outlook magazine).

At the heart of the smoked out region sits the Indian province of Punjab, which, happily, also sits at the heart of the problem. The Great Indian Haze originates here, in hundreds of thousands of farm fires that are set alight every October by millions of farmers. These farmers plant government subsidized seeds and water them using canal water provided free by the government, or using government subsidized electricity to draw free ground water in contravention of government rules. They apply government subsidized fertilizers and government subsidized pesticides and obtain a harvest. The harvesting these days is done by combine harvesters, which too are government subsidized, and are bought on government subsidized loans, and they run on government subsidized diesel. The net result is a rice harvest that is sold off at highly inflated government mandated minimum prices.

Harvesting through a combine harvester leaves behind a foot high crop stubble, which the farmers proceed to burn, again in contravention of government rules. It is a contentious matter. Even though combine harvesters are very recent, the government says farm burning is ancient practice and it can do little to intervene. To be sure field burning is banned in law. However, farmers say they are left to fend for themselves without any government help, so they have no choice but to burn the stubble to keep their home fires burning. It is a tearjerker of epic proportions, though it doesn’t quite add up.
It is easy to see that the combine harvester is a recently invented machine, so this kind of farm burning can’t be more ancient than a few decades. It is also easy to see how sensitive the farmer is to government incentives. The government provides so many subsidies and controls so thoroughly all aspects to agriculture that the average Punjab farmer is practically a government employee. So stories of farmers revolting against government rules that ban farm burning are highly exaggerated, if not entirely fiction. In any case, it does not matter. Whether the practice is ancient or modern, whether farmers are subsidized or left helpless, whether they like it or not, it does not matter. The practice needs to stop. Farmers can’t get to choke India just because they feed it. If this is the cost of rice, then I suspect Delhi would prefer Chinese rice.

Happily, the problem is not as intractable as the government would have us believe. Prodding just one man to do his job would do the trick because at the core of the problem, at its very center, is one single politician who lurks in the background, almost obscured. He is, however, utterly central.

Why is the problem political and who is the politician responsible?

One gets a big clue in the pictures listed in the sources. Do click them. Look at the farm fires burn. The ancient practice, the unstoppable burning, the penury of farmers, stops right at the border of Punjab. On the East and South the moment one crosses into Himachal and Haryana, and in the West the moment one goes over to Pakistan, the fires disappear. In this picture Punjab, and only Punjab, is alight. It is so sharply defined that you can make out its pear shape and its political and international borders.

Now, if you are still not convinced I will request you to see the gif video in the mashable link referred in the sources below. If you are not convinced even after viewing that video, then I request you look at the NASA images I have put in the links. If you know the political map of India, you will see in a second that the problem is Punjab, and only Punjab.

Only Punjab.

This fact is very well known to most relevant institutions in India. The Supreme court knows and has intervened. The National Green Tribunal knows and has intervened. The Central Government knows and has intervened. The Delhi government knows and has intervened. The issue is so well known, in fact, that early in October 2016 “Delhi Environment Minister Imran Hussain told PTI that this time around the AAP government's focus will be on tackling this annual menace before the winter sowing season. "I have already written to the neighbouring state governments in this regard. I will also arrange a meeting with them to ensure that corrective steps are taken and things do not remain limited to mere words and letters," Hussain said.”

I am not sure if Imran did finally arrange those meetings. They wouldn’t have mattered anyway. Imran Hussain was naive. He expected action because he knew not who he was up against.
Even as Imran Hussain wrote from Delhi it was clear to those following up on the ground that nothing would happen. One such body, the Supreme Court appointed Environmental Pollution Control Authority had thrown up its hands in frustration because Punjab Agriculture officials were informing the Authority, in meeting after meeting after meeting throughout October 2016, that they would not, could not stop farmers from burning their fields and choking Delhi because there were elections in Punjab in March 2017, and so the farmers would vote, and so they could not be bothered.

That is right.

About ten million farmers in Punjab (population 17 million, 60% farming) could not be bothered. They were to be left alone to burn North India to hell and jeopardize about 25 million people in Greater Delhi alone. In summary, per Punjab Agriculture, it did not matter if the actions of Punjab’s 10 million farmers choked 200 - 300 million people across North and West India who now inhale their fumes. This was the state of administrative logic in Punjab. It guaranteed disaster.
It would be easy to blame the officials and end the story. It would also be wrong because Punjab Agriculture officers were not acting on their own. They were merely spouting the party line.
In India farmers listen to government officials, not the other way around. Government officials listen to politicians, and Punjab Agriculture officers were mouthing lines given to them by that one politician who matters to our story.

Prakash Singh Badal.

Prakash Badal is currently Chief Minister of Punjab and his son Sukhbir Badal heads the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), their family owned political party. Sukhbir’s wife Harsimrat Kaur Badal is Union Minister for Food Processing. Interestingly, she grew up in Delhi. The cabinet of Punjab is, in the usual Indian way, the extended Badal family - cousins, in laws, etc.

The SAD rules in alliance with the BJP, whose 56 inch chest shrinks to 56 mm in Punjab. While the Gujarat lion roars all over India, in Punjab his party doesn’t even squeak. A few months back, in Aug 2016, the head of the RSS in Punjab was shot dead. Did we hear anything?

‘Hello......... anybody there?’

That silence is the power of Prakash Badal over the BJP.

The heart of Prakash Badal’s politics in Punjab is identity. Like so many politicians we know in so many states, he places Punjab’s pride above everything else. He is a hardball man, he has seen the fire pits of hell, having spent 17 of his 89 years in prison and having endured hard police interrogation, and he has kissed the fragrant heavens, being endowed with the Padma Vibhushan, India’s second highest civilian honour, and he has been compared to Nelson Mandela by none other than Narendra Modi. He was Punjab’s youngest Chief Minister, and is also its oldest. He has been active in politics since 1947. The worlds swirls around Prakash Badal, and throughout it all he has remained stoic, unimpressed, always playing the peasant in the ballroom. Badal is a man who has seen so much that he can have no fear in the autumn of his life. What can one do to him? Jail him? Have the police torture him? Exile him? Take away his awards? Raid him for Income Tax?

Been there, done that.

To understand just how tough and unreasonable Badal can be, one has to study the case of the Satluj Yamuna Link Canal (SYLC).

The background is simple enough. When Punjab and Haryana separated from one big parent Punjab State, Haryana was promised a fair share of Satluj Water. This water was to be delivered via a canal linking the Satluj to the Yamuna. Didn’t happen. A few days back Haryana celebrated 50 years of existence, and it still ain’t happening. Nobody seriously expects it to ever happen. But to keep up appearances Haryana sued Punjab and the case has progressed over many decades, like a Banyan tree, with many roots and many branches, mainly because every time the Courts found in favour of Haryana, Punjab simply refused to comply. Under the Congress’ rule. Under the SAD and the BJP. Punjab state simply would not give away any water. When the matter went in favor of Haryana in 2004, for example, the Congress’ then CM Amarinder Singh passed a law that repudiated all previous agreements on Satluj water. The law worked to deny Haryana water, but it didn’t work to its intended purpose, which was to get Amarinder victory in the next election. He lost to Badal in 2007 and again in 2012. Badal has been in power for a decade.

Badal is made of sterner stuff than the Congress. To outdo Amarinder, who in 2004 had repudiated mere paper agreements, in March 2016 Badal passed a law returning all land acquired for the Satluj Yamuna Link Canal back to its original owners. A canal, after all, has to exist on the ground, so if land acquired for it is returned the canal just cannot be conceived. It is under such simple, devastating logic that Badal operates. His quip on the new law he passed: “No bamboo, no flute.”

In this action Badal was supported by all political parties - the Congress, the BJP and the AAP. They had no choice. They believed that to not support the destruction of the SYLC would be political suicide in Punjab. No matter how unreasonable the demand. No matter how destructive the long term consequences. As the Supreme Court pondered the matter of the newly passed law in Punjab, JCB excavators turned up in the thousands to plough through the canal’s construction. Newly reinstated owners gleefully swooped to claim their land with government help. Punjab’s cabinet ranged near the site of the canal, egging on the destruction. When the Supreme Court stayed the matter a few days after the passage of the law, Prakash Badal accelerated the destruction of the canal in the window between the issuance of the court order and its receipt in Chandigarh for official implementation.
The defiance continues. Recently Badal made clear that as far as the SYLC is concerned the Supreme Court is irrelevant, deluded, powerless. He will not let SYLC happen. The Supreme Court can go stuff it, hop about, sob, scream, throw any tantrum, any threat, any punishment. Under all circumstances Prakash Badal’s cool, even voiced reply is: “We are ready to make any sacrifice to safeguard the legitimate share of river waters.” In other words, it will come to blows and bullets.
One cannot be sure, because he has not made his intentions plain yet, but his actions suggest strongly that on the issue of air pollution caused by field burning Badal has taken the same standard Punjab line. North India can choke, but Punjab’s farmers cannot be bothered. Has he done it deliberately, carefully weighing all consequences, or is it just a question of culture now that Punjab’s farmers cannot be bothered for anything. We do not know. Did Badal specifically tell Punjab Agriculture officers to lay off, or did they sense the political winds themselves, without even the need to be instructed, we do not know. We do know, however, the actions and the result on the ground, and they show that Punjab’s stand on the matter is that its farmers will not be troubled, irrespective of the consequences.

To understand Badal, one must understand his political strategy against the AAP, the Congress and the BJP, the only other relevant players in Punjab. It is a simple and direct play, but it is quite effective. Since Badal is the only one who has no other provinces to think of except Punjab, he can outflank all the others by being extreme. The more unreasonable he is in defence of Punjab, the more difficult it will become for the Congress, the AAP and the BJP to counter him within the province without angering those outside it. Considerations pertaining to provinces outside Punjab, such as Delhi and Haryana, would restrain the other parties. SAD, on the other hand, is unrestrained. The others, therefore, cannot hope to win the war of words as long as Badal remains unreasonable.

So here it is. Prakash Badal cannot be threatened. He is fearless. Prakash Badal also cannot be legally restrained, because he does not respect even the Supreme Court. He cannot be lured. He already rules Punjab and is rich beyond belief. He cannot be corralled by the central government because he is a BJP ally.  Thousands will die, but that is incidental. Badal knows it in a distant, Godly kind of way. They will die anyway. It is their fate and not his fault. His strategy is to be more extreme than anyone else and he will follow it come what may. Did Badal plan the Delhi smog? I do not know. Did he know it would get this bad? Perhaps not. Did he appreciate the consequences? Perhaps no. Does he now know he gains by the smog? Most certainly yes. He may or may not have planned it, but it is clear that he benefits from it immensely, and he knows it.

Such is the man Delhi must negotiate with for air to breathe.

Unfortunate it is then that the man who has the biggest responsibility to lure and coerce Prakash Badal is in his choke hold. Arvind Kejriwal, Chief Minister of Delhi, desires Punjab for AAP. And that is the reason why Prakash Badal perhaps does not merely want to ignore pollution, he probably wants to encourage it.

On the evening of November 2, 2016, the day of the worst smog in living memory at Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal (AK) had a choice of issues to take up for evening TV. There had been a very unfortunate suicide by a retired soldier at Delhi on the issue of army pensions. There was also the unprecedented, lethal blanket of smoke that covered the city of Delhi and smothered about 25 million people.  Perhaps the Delhi CM pondered the matter at length and it was a close call on the matter he would take up that evening. I wouldn’t know. What I know is that he chose to agitate on army pensions.
Arvind Kejriwal’s choice was quite calculated. And his calculations were forced by Prakash Badal. One could see the calculation. Offhand I can list seven points that AK would have considered.

1. He had no responsibility for, nor could he do anything about army pensions, so he took them up with great enthusiasm.

2. OROP (One Rank One Pension) was, and remains, a wide open space with vast opportunities to hog the airwaves mouthing brilliant purple prose without bothering about the nitty gritty. It was a good distraction.

3. AK took up OROP because the issue highlighted a failing of the central government, which he detests.

4. He chose OROP over air pollution because Delhi did not have elections, while Punjab, which has a sizeable number of retired army men, did have elections lined up.

5. Arvind Kejriwal was responsible for Delhi and therefore, paradoxically, he ignored the city because highlighting its plight would have shown him in poor light.

6. AK believed people would soon forget about the 2016 smog, straight for a year until the arrival of the 2017 smog.

7. AK also believed that air pollution could not be resolved without incurring great political cost. His government pushed a few ad hoc interventions just to hedge its bets, but fundamentally, he did not believe that there was a solution to air pollution that was politically doable. Ban cars? Odd-even? Shut factories? Strictly monitor construction activity? Force Punjab to act tough on field burning? Arvind Kejriwal did not believe he could do any of these things. He was absolutely right. Other steps would not make a difference, and Punjab, AK understood, he could not address.

AK was trapped. If he took up air pollution, he would be hammered in Punjab. If he did not, he would be hammered in Delhi. Either way, Prakash Badal would win by simply ensuring the pollution problem be made as acute as possible.

Prakash Badal is the reason why Arvind Kejriwal is agitating on OROP. He is also the reason why Rahul Gandhi is agitating on OROP. And they will keep agitating on OROP and other issues even as their home city goes up in smoke. They are studiously ignoring the obvious because speaking up will play into the hands of the man who created this monster in the first place. This is also why the President is silent, and so is the PM. If any one of them speaks Prakash Badal will ensure that person takes severe damage in the Punjab election. They all know it.

This year is a write off. Even next year the man who has to solve this is Narendra Modi. This problem and its creator are well beyond the acumen and power of all other players. I do not doubt for a moment that Modi knows he will have to act. He knows it is coming for him. For one, the NGT has already got many states involved, so the central government has to get involved. And then, the fact of the matter is that the heartland of India is at 200% of China pollution at 20% of China GDP. If we are to have any economic future then pollution has to be tackled. We could of course grow to 100% China GDP with 1000% China pollution. It would be very adventurous to try.

Personally, I do not think it will take much. Simply banning combine harvesters of the type that leave a crop stubble will have the desired effect. A few changes to procurement prices of rice and rice straw would work. Two or three high profile arrests of farmers who burn their fields might suffice. Perhaps Modi should meet Harsimrat Kaur Badal. She is the Union Minister of Food Processing, daughter in law of Prakash Badal, wife of the heir apparent at SAD. She is a Delhi girl. She would see that things are unsustainable. She perhaps would be able to urge Prakash Badal that steps must be taken. Perhaps Modi could talk to the Delhi Sikh Gurudwara Management Committee. This committee is under the rule of Prakash Badal’s SAD. They would be able to intercede with him and convey directly the distress at Delhi. There is good reason to hope field burning would stop soon.

Bhuwan Singh writes on Indian politics and publishes on Facebook and Kindle. You can get his books at https://www.amazon.com/Bhuwan-Singh/e/B00E9O5X9Q or simply click the Shop Now button near the top of his Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/bhuwansinghwriter/. All books are available on Kindle only. You can read them by downloading the free Kindle app or by buying a Kindle device. Please “Like” the Facebook page to be alerted on future Facebook posts.

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Sources:


The Run up to Delhi’s November 2016 Smog: http://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/delhi/2016/oct/16/delhi-holds-breath-as-farm-fires-rage-in-punjab-haryana-1528484.html?pm=340

Delhi Smog: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Delhi-chokes-on-worst-Nov-smog-in-many-years/articleshow/55216180.cms

North India Smog: http://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/diwali-and-stubble-burning-have-muddled-your-oxygen/297356  

Lahore under smog: http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/air-pollution-covers-pakistani-city-of-lahore-1.3147441

NASA Real Time Fire Mapping Images: https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/firemap/
And NASA’s images narrowed to India: https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/firemap/?x=77.00624999999997&y=28.050000000000004&z=6&g=g&v=6&r=0&i=nw&l=ad,ct&s=2016-10-05&e=2016-11-05. This is a 375 m resolution I Band view. For a different view see https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/firemap/?x=76.80000000000001&y=28.200000000000003&z=6&g=g&v=7&r=0&i=nw&l=ad,ct&s=2016-10-05&e=2016-11-05

Punjab Agriculture helpless against farmers: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/punjab-farm-fires-particulate-matter-punjab-elections/1/801207.html

Punjab Crop Burning: http://mashable.com/2016/11/03/nasa-delhi-air-pollution-crops-burning-farmers-india/#R7uNab7kUkqy

SAD on SYL: http://www.hindustantimes.com/punjab/will-not-accept-even-supreme-court-s-verdict-to-share-river-water-with-haryana-punajb-cm-badal/story-DepcGNzT1O3y64INu6pTAK.html

The Congress’ agitation on SYLC: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/congress-threatens-mass-resignations-if-sc-decides-against-punjab-in-syl-case/1/722816.html
Prakash Badal on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkash_Singh_Badal

Modi says Badal is Mandela: http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/badal-indias-nelson-mandela-says-pm-modi-twitter-explodes-laughing-1230906

Punjab and SYL: http://www.indiatvnews.com/politics/national-punjab-passes-resolution-against-syl-construction-319836

NGT acts on air pollution. Sees inter state issue: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/do-the-people-have-the-right-to-breathe-fresh-air-centre-reprimands-kejriwal-government/articleshow/55253491.cms

AK says centre must intervene and act on pollution: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/delhi-resembles-a-gas-chamber-centre-needs-to-intervene-cm-arvind-kejriwal-3738863/